A recovery was driven by agriculture, infrastructure, and oil

Following a year of weak growth in 2021 due to the decline in agricultural activity (40% of GDP and 80% of the population) caused by low rainfall, Niger’s economy rebounded in 2022. If the weather conditions are favorable, it should remain strong in 2023, main thanks to the agricultural sector. Furthermore, Niger’s growth will be supported by the ongoing construction of significant infrastructure, such as the Niger-Benin pipeline, built by the China National Petroleum Corporation and commissioned in the year’s second half to increase oil production. Additionally, the construction of the Kandadji dam will continue until 2025. Growth in the oil sector, driven by global prices and export growth from the pipeline, is expected to reach 86% after 20.6% in 2022. Favorable growth prospects in the agricultural sector will support household consumption, while growth in the oil sector will fuel private investment. The Central Bank of West African States is expected to maintain its primary objective of controlling inflation by hiking interest rates. Inflation risks will remain a persistent danger to the agricultural sector due to possible increases in agrarian input prices.

Fiscal consolidation, a priority for the Nigerien government

The budget deficit should narrow in 2023 thanks to the fiscal consolidation supported by the IMF under the program associated with the USD 276 million Extended Credit Facility agreed in December 2021 for three years with the Nigerien authorities. Revenues, including those associated with customs duties and oil production, but also in connection with the dematerialization and digitalization of their collection, should increase. The effort should be less on expenditure, given the persistence of social and security emergencies (20% of defense expenditure). In this context, marked by persistently high food import costs and security concerns, the fiscal consolidation process will likely be delayed. The deficit will continue to be financed mainly through concessional loans and grants from partner organizations and countries. Public debt, 70% of which is external, will remain high, notably because of payment arrears for the 2021 agricultural season. It should, however, stabilize in 2022, then decline slightly in 2023.

The current account deficit is also expected to narrow in 2023 after widening in 2022. The trade deficit should shrink owing to the increase in oil exports linked to the commissioning of the Niger-Benin pipeline, but also thanks to a timid recovery in gold and uranium sales on the back of favorable prices, despite stagnant production linked to insecurity and the depletion of uranium mines. On the import side, costs are expected to fall due to lower global food prices. The secondary income surplus will gradually decrease as foreign aid declines, while the primary income deficit will remain in line with profit repatriation by foreign companies boosted by growth.

Political instability and growing insecurity

The ruling party (Parti nigérien pour la démocratie et le socialism-Tarraya) and the president, Mohamed Bazoum, survived a coup attempt by junior military officers in March 2021, shortly after the December 2020 and February 2021 elections. The government faces social discontent due to deteriorating socio-economic conditions, including high living costs - in a country where poverty and hunger are widespread, and there is growing insecurity. This insecurity is fuelled by terrorism, from the federation of terrorist groups (JNIM) close to Al Qaeda, the Islamic State in the Great Sahara affiliated to Daech, or the Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram. Terrorist activities occur in the western region of Tillabéri, close to Mali and Burkina Faso, and in Tahoua in the south. Attacks on local communities have displaced tens of thousands of civilians. This terrorist activity is related to high social discontent linked to complex social and economic conditions.

Faced with jihadist groups, Niger intends to revive the G5 Sahel, weakened by the defection of Mali and the political disorder in Burkina Faso, as reflected by the commitment of its president to the head of the military government of Chad, Mahamat Idriss Déby, by increasing its operational capacity. The redeployment of the French military (Barkhane force) in Niger, after the forced departure from Mali, should make it possible to contain the advance of terrorist groups, thus reducing insecurity, despite feeding anti-French sentiment.