globalEDGE Blog - By Tag: oil

As the conflict with Israel expands, many people are worried about the price of oil skyrocketing. However, due to a lack of reliance on Middle East production, increasing global production and decreasing demand for oil should help to keep prices steady.

Venezuela’s 2024 crisis, sparked by a disputed election, has deepened the country’s economic collapse, affecting businesses worldwide. While political instability has been a recurring problem in Venezuela for years, the 2024 election—marked by allegations of fraud and unrest—has intensified the country's economic freefall.

On September 12, the North African country of Libya was ravaged by extreme flooding. This disaster was spearheaded by Storm Daniel, one of the latest hurricanes to touch down this year. Two thousand people have died and 10,000 others are still unaccounted for at the hands of the natural disaster. During the storm, two dams in the country’s northeast side burst, sending an exorbitant amount of water to the city. 

Oil prices continue to fall, hitting almost 15-month lows. One of the new factors impacting the global price of oil is the current banking turmoil further adding to the confusion of world prices. 

This past Monday, the United States government gave the green light for the Willow Project, a controversial oil and gas development proposal in Alaska. The project, spearheaded by ConocoPhillips, aims to extract up to 600 million barrels of oil and 3.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas from the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A), a 23 million-acre area on the North Slope of Alaska.

With the Russian-Ukrainian war approaching a year, the market for oil and gas has been volatile. And new Western sanctions aimed at curbing Russia's economy are expected to impact prices again.

Global markets around the world are expected to plummet as protests in China continue. The protests are due in part to China’s strict zero-Covid policy and citizens' disapproval of such rules. This has been one of the first major government challenges since the Tiananmen crisis more than 30 years ago. China has seen a high number of positive Covid-19 cases, and on Saturday, the nation saw a new high of 40,000 cases. China is the second leading consumer of oil in the world, yet with the intense Covid-19 restrictions, the country is seeing a dip in the amount of production. The nation’s high-risk districts make up close to 65% of China’s gross national domestic product. The country has seen protests for three days and there is no sign of them slowing down.

The Nord Stream pipelines are two large underwater pipelines connecting Russia and Germany. These pipelines were designed to export Russian oil and gas to Germany. The natural gas exported through Nord Stream accounted for 35% of European energy that is supplied by Russia. As tension between Russia and Europe heightened, the amount of natural gas that Russian companies exported declined drastically. By early September, Nord Stream 1 was fully out of operation. The plans for the operation of Nord Stream 2, another pipeline that would export Russian gas, were shut down by the German government earlier this year. The Nord Stream pipelines and the Russian oil they supply are critical to European countries such as Germany, Hungary, Greece, and many more.

One of the world’s most powerful groups of oil producers is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, known as OPEC+. The organization has decided to impose drastic output cutbacks on oil production as a way to boost oil prices, despite pleas from the United States to pump more oil. On Wednesday, OPEC+ made the final decision to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day starting in November. 

As the Ukraine and Russia conflict continues, the surrounding nations are feeling the full effect of the consequences. In retaliation for the European Union's support for Ukraine, Russia is reducing the natural gas supply to most EU countries. As of today, gas is trading at 10 times what it was at this time last year, and as a result, a sense of urgency is arising from many prime ministers that are demanding to address these problems right away.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24th, 2022, has had a rippling effect across the world. On a global level, one of the most talked-about and impacted resources is oil. Even though Russia only makes up 2% of the global economy, its stake in global energy is far more significant. Russian wells are responsible for 11% of global oil consumption, and an even higher 17% of natural gas consumption.

The past two years have been crazy for many industries, including the oil market. Crude oil was sliding into the negatives early on in the pandemic; however, the price has surpassed $100 per barrel recently. The global benchmark, Brent crude oil, was trading above $130 per barrel this past week. Since gas prices primarily depend on oil prices, there has been a significant increase in gas prices worldwide. Many reasons led to this increase, some weighing more than others.

The rise of the East and the decline of the West have become a common theme among Chinese government officials. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are plotting the next Cold War. China and Russia’s relationship grew closer over the mutual interest to dismount the United States' dominance. With the United States occupied with COVID-19 and pulling troops out of Afghanistan in disarray, Russia and China see an opportunity to invade the nearby countries Ukraine and Taiwan. Both countries have been targets for China and Russia for decades. As Ukraine struggles to join NATO it will be a tough battle for them to compete with Russia. Also, China is being projected to become the world’s largest economy and building the world’s largest army they will be a force to be reckoned with.

In recent years, scientists have warned that temperatures in Russia are rising at higher rates than the global average. The largest landmass of any northern nation is warming 2.5 times faster than the rest of the world.

As the United States welcomes President Joe Biden, he has begun at a quick pace changing policies and reforming some government-related issues. One of them was the oil industry's reformation, concerning the United States' large oil infrastructure, but a huge gain for environmentalists across our globe.

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020, consumption levels and prices of petroleum and other fossil fuels have dramatically decreased. With many people working from home, and not traveling for the holidays and vacations, almost every corner of the world has seen a dramatic decrease in oil demand and consumption, but will this be the future for fossil fuels?

Oil, often considered to be a prime example of an inelastic good—always in demand regardless of price—may not hold true now due to the coronavirus epidemic.  With recent news of major air carriers and other transportation companies reducing domestic and international service, it has created a ripple effect in the travel industry as a whole (cruise ships, hotels, resorts).  With many would-be travelers canceling their plans, it is fair to say that the foreseeable future for the travel industry is bleak.  Not to mention, shutdowns in China have played a significant impact on oil when considering they are the world’s greatest importer of oil.  For these reasons, the short-term demand for oil has decreased dramatically, resulting in an eye-opening response from major oil producers across the globe.

Early into the new year, waves of protests have emerged in Canada. Indigenous activists have begun to organize demonstrations to object the construction of a 670-kilometer pipeline (the Coastal GasLink pipeline) that passes through indigenous lands. One native group that opposes the project is known as the Wet'suwet'en, located out of British Columbia. The Wet'suwet'en did propose alternate routes to Coastal Gaslink, but the routes were rejected in favor of a path that was more technically viable and minimized environmental impact. Coastal Gaslink claims to have consulted with Aboriginal groups in the process of planning the route.

On September 13th, Saudi Arabia fell victim to a drone attack on their state-owned oil processing facility, a resource they proudly consider to be their kingdom’s “crown jewel,” as oil accounts for 50% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP and 70% of their export earnings.  The attack sent crude oil prices up 15% to about $69 a barrel, marking the highest price increase in over three decades. With such a heavy reliance placed on Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves, it is important for world leaders to keep in mind the damaging repercussions of escalating conflict in the Middle East, an issue that presents another big problem to the world economy, in addition to the U.S. and China trade dispute.  

The development of fracking has created a revolution in the United States oil and gas industry. Following a conference in Houston, analysts have projected the U.S. to surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world's top crude exporter within the next few years. The U.S. is projected to double its gross crude oil exports to 4.2 million barrels per day by 2024. Additionally, the United States is expected to account for 70% of the total increase in global production capacity over the next 5 years. Directors for the International Energy Agency have crowned this the “Second wave of the U.S. shale revolution”. Additionally, there is a $2.5 billion project being discussed that would carry wind and solar energy from Iowa into the Chicago area. This ‘cord’ is estimated to be 349 miles long and would connect to a power grid serving 13 midwestern states.

In the 2019 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, representatives from every nation and from the world’s largest businesses have gathered together to discuss new developments, problems, and initiatives around the world. The first two days of this year’s summit featured an address from Brazil’s recently elected president Jair Bolsonaro, discussion on shale oil by John Hess of Hess Corporation, and discussion of the IMF’s lower prospects on 2019’s economic growth.

Qatar, a small, wealthy country in the Middle East, announced its resignation from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on December 3rd.  OPEC is the most powerful oil cartel in the world, holding a near monopoly over the oil industry that allows the group--which now consists of 14 countries, most notably of which are Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Iran—to exercise nearly complete control of oil prices and production.  Russia also holds an alliance with OPEC, more specifically with Saudi Arabia, and shares an influence on the oil market.

Shrinking supplies from Iran, along with strong global growth has led to a bullish sentiment in future oil prices. Crude oil has rallied for four straight weeks and speculators are purchasing bullish oil options as a result. A reason for the speculation revolves around OPEC members and their inability to make up for production shortfalls amid political turmoil.

This is the fourth post in a five-part blog series focused on the energy industry.

As more countries consider the environmental impacts of capturing and using different forms of energy, the era for previous power-houses like coal is coming to a close. This post will explore the accessibility, development, and trading of upcoming fossil fuels around the globe.

Late last year Russia and OPEC agreed to extend their agreement to decrease oil production until the end of 2018.  Russia, OPEC, and other major oil-producing countries agreed to reduce their oil production in 2017 in an attempt to decrease the global supply of oil and in turn increase the price of oil.  An extension was signed in advance of the previous deal ending in this coming March.  The original cut in oil production was in response to falling oil prices.  After declining for the previous few years, 2017 saw rising oil prices worldwide, due in large part to the agreement limiting oil that OPEC and other countries enacted last year.  West Texas Intermediate saw crude oil prices rise from $43.33 per barrel in 2016 to $50.56 per barrel in 2017. 

Venezuela's international standing has suffered in the wake of its controversial presidential election and constitutional assembly. Amidst allegations of vote manipulation and crackdowns on protests and opposition, Venezuela's electoral process and ensuing government scandals have faced condemnation from several international leaders. Foreign ministers of fellow Mercosur countries voted to indefinitely suspend Venezuela from the trade bloc. The United States levied sanctions on numerous Venezuelan officials, including the country's president, preventing them from doing business in or traveling to the U.S. Other nations have refused to recognize the election results. The international response will likely impact the already-suffering Venezuelan economy, which has declined sharply over the past few years.

Oil prices worldwide are in decline. Much of the decline in oil prices has been contributed to rising oil production in the United States. To combat this it is expected that OPEC will decide to continue its cap on oil production at their meeting in May. As recently as one week ago it was reported that Saudi Arabia was gathering support from other OPEC countries in extending their cap on production.

In part two of this week's trade blocs series, we are taking a look at the Gulf Corporation Council.

Morocco is turning to the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) as its trade relationship with the European Union takes an unexpected turn. The relations between the European Union (EU) and Morocco began to deteriorate when the European Court ruled that a farm trade accord did not apply to Morocco’s Western Sahara territory. Soon after, Morocco began to make ties with the GCC in order to diversify its markets away from the EU, its main trading partner.

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the Iran nuclear deal, was a global agreement that curtailed multinational sanctions on Iran with the promise that Iran would cut back on its uranium enrichment. Several nations have doubted Iran's full commitment to the deal, especially with news of the recent missile test; nonetheless, the JCPOA has held firm thus far. Helped by the sanctions relief, Iran has now taken a large step in revitalizing its position within the global marketplace. The country has started building 12 new oil refineries, hoping to increase its overall output to at least 4 billion barrels a day by the end of March. Unaffected by the OPEC supply cuts negotiated last November, Iran hopes to massively expand its lagging energy industry, a sector that was particularly hit hard by pre-deal sanctions.

In December 2016 Nigeria once again became Africa’s top oil producer, producing just over 1.75 million barrels of oil per day. Before December, Angola had been Africa’s largest oil producer.  Both countries are members of OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and in late 2016 OPEC agreed to cut their total oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day starting in January 2017 to keep oil prices at a stable point. Up to this time, however, Nigeria continued to increase their own production of oil. This is because Nigeria was exempted from cutting their oil production in the OPEC agreement. Many Nigerian oil facilities were attacked by militant groups upset with the current distribution of the profits the government makes off of their oil exports. Because of this Nigeria’s oil production has already decreased in 2016. 

Today, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will be conducting a highly anticipated meeting regarding the future production of oil and its prices. The main issue the meeting will focus on is the amount of oil supplied by members of OPEC, with an emphasis on the leading oil producing countries in the group. Investors are anxiously awaiting the outcome of the OPEC decision to potentially cut oil production globally. Outcomes of the previous meeting conducted in Algiers seemed hopeful, as the majority of OPEC members agreed to cut as much as 2 percent of their total oil production.

Earlier this month on October 5th, Brazil’s congress approved the key points of a polarizing bill, which would allow foreign investment in the nation's offshore oil fields. The bill overturns parts of a 2010 bill which was aimed at increasing government control over the lucrative oil fields. This law mandated that the state-run oil company, Petrobras, be the lead operator and hold a minimum of a 30% stake in any offshore drilling operations in so-called “pre-salt” fields.

On Wednesday, OPEC reached an agreement that will cut its output of oil for the first time in eight years. The current rate of production is 33.24 million barrels per day; the new aim is 32.5 million barrels per day. The decision came to fruition at a two-day OPEC meeting in Algeria. However, it is not yet an official deal. Specific details have not been released yet, and decisions regarding individual countries' output will not be discussed until late November. Plus, there are several more related proposals from OPEC affiliates that warrant discussion. If an official deal is eventually reached and put into effect, it will undoubtedly raise oil prices (which have been cripplingly low over the past year) and help combat the global oversupply of crude oil.

In 2012, the UK-based oil exploration company, Tullow Oil, discovered oil in Kenya's northwestern Turkana region. Over four years later, the country is now announcing its plans to go forward with the production of crude oil.

U.S. crude oil prices have been falling for the past two years and some claim that prices may not change until 2019, when oil production will reach its peak. Ever since the global oil-price collapse, oil has become a lot more affordable for consumers, hitting a two-month low on Wednesday, July 20th. As a result of excess oil productions, many suspect that oil prices may go back to $20 per barrel while others predict prices to reach $80 a barrel because the excess is overestimated.

Chevron and partners in the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan will help to increase crude oil production in the field by about 260,000 barrels per day with the development of its Future Growth and Wellhead Pressure Management Project. This expansion is estimated to cost $36.8 billion but will increase the field’s total daily production to about 1 million barrels. Multiple companies own portions of this oil field: Tengizchevroil is 50% owned by Chevron and owns and operates the Tengiz field. However, another 25% is owned by Exxon Mobil Corp, 20% by Kazakhstan’s state-owned energy company, KazMunayGas, and the final 5% is owned by a subsidiary of Russia’s Lukoil.

Wildfires in Canada have halted oil production, causing oil to drop for the fourth day in a row, making this the longest stretch of declining oil in over a month. Around 1 million barrels a day were halted due to the continuous wildfires over the course of May. The 5,000 square kilometer forest wildfire, nicknamed “the beast” has taken many shifts in directions, which has caused these fires to be more difficult to contain. However, municipal authorities in Alberta stated on May 20th that conditions were improving and mandatory evacuations orders for seven oil-sands worker camps have been lifted, and operations are underway again.

Dubai has been one of the fastest growing economies in the past 3 decades, if not the fastest. Dubai has been all over the news and social media for quite some time now, and everyone is amused by its dramatic changes. It distinguishes itself with its ultramodern architecture, skyscrapers, and luxurious shopping. It’s also known for its indoor skiing, housing the tallest skyscraper in the world, “Burj Khaleefa”, and building man-made islands such as the “Palm Jumeirah”.

Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company of Saudi Arabia, is increasing oil production in advance of its partial IPO. While global oil production has been decreasing, Saudi Arabia has decided to stop regulating production levels and dismissed the idea of stabilizing global supply and demand. The oil giant is preparing for its first public offering, offering about 5% of the company.

In a statement recently released by the Angolan Finance Ministry, the government stated that it would begin working with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help restore the economy after recent difficulties due to the major decline in oil prices. Specific discussions are expected to begin next week during the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington. Angola’s economy relies heavily on oil, which accounts for more than 95% of the country’s export earnings and two-thirds of government revenue. As a result of crude oil prices currently being valued at less than half of the level it reached in mid-2014, Angola and other oil-dominating countries, such as Nigeria, Egypt, and Libya, are struggling to stay afloat economically.

Iran, OPEC’s number 3 crude oil producer, is expected to raise its oil exports to around 1.65 million barrels per day in March. Previously, Iran was exporting about 1.5 million barrels per day. With the rise in exports, the state-run National Iranian Oil Company plans to increase shipments to several countries throughout Europe. The National Iranian Oil Co. is expected to ship around 250,000-300,000 barrels per day to Europe beginning on March 1. France is contracted to receive about 200,000 barrels per day, while Spain is set to receive about 35,000 barrels per day. Russia and Greece are also expected to receive shipments from Iran.

Nigeria needs money. Specifically, it needs $3.5 billion worth of cash flows for their $15 billion government driven deficit. The recent global oil glut has left Africa, and especially Nigeria, competing for oil contracts in Asian markets. Other countries, like Kenya, are facing similar untimely crises as the decade-long commodity boom is coming to an end. Before, growth in Africa relied upon the abundance of land, which left no necessity for advanced infrastructure or substantial growth in other sectors. Dependence on uncontrollable factors, it seems, has left Africa’s largest and most advanced economies in the early stages of economic stagnation.

Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria, is seeking loans from the World Bank and African Development Bank (ADB) to help fund its forecasted budget deficit. Historically, Nigeria’s budget has been financed primarily with oil revenues, but the recent plummet in oil prices has slashed the amount of funding produced by this sector. Nigeria is not alone in this situation, as other nations such as Azerbaijan, Venezuela, Algeria, and Iraq are also in dire economic straights due to an overreliance on oil production.

Since American shale oil has joined the oil industry, oil prices have plummeted. Brent crude oil is down more than 60% since last summer, pricing at under $43 a barrel. American light crude oil is trading at the lowest prices in 10 years at under $40 a barrel. Predictions from Goldman Sachs suggest that prices could fall even further. The main concern driving this price drop is supply and demand imbalances--there is too much oil being produced and not enough customers purchasing it all.

The ever-changing oil industry is currently facing a downturn, as the price of oil per barrel has been cut roughly in half since June 2014, the lowest since the economic recession in 2009. Over the last decade, oil prices were normally around $90 or $100 per barrel. On Tuesday, the international standard of Brent crude oil was trading at around $46 per barrel while American oil was trading at around $43 per barrel.

Since Iran refused to suspend it uranium enrichment program in 1979, various international sanctions have been imposed on this country in order to restrict its policies of developing nuclear weapons. The cost of such military development is the loss of the oil production capacity, which decreased from over 7 million barrels per day in 1979 to around 4.2 million in 2003. Iran has realized the need to boost its oil output for economic growth and it has agreed to curb its nuclear program. In July, Iran signed a historic nuclear deal with six global powers to waive the sanctions, which are expected to be lifted in early 2016. The country is now preparing for the expected economic growth in the coming year.

Natural resources businesses in the Arctic are facing a complex economic situation. A new economic organization, the Arctic Economic Council (AEC) Secretariat, was recently founded in the region to help small to medium-sized businesses and promote favorable business policies. However, many countries are reassessing their strategies of drilling for oil and gas in Arctic region because of falling oil prices and the downturn of the global economy.

With multiple billion-dollar deals already announced this year, total takeover-deal announcements are on pace to reach $4.58 trillion in 2015. This mark would exceed to previous record high of $4.29 trillion set in 2007, just before the global financial meltdown.

To say the global oil industry has had a turbulent year would be an understatement. The industry has been thrown into a violent tailspin, which has culminated in oil trading for under half the price it was fourteen months ago. While the initial cause of the crash was oversupply, several recent international developments, including the Chinese market downturn and the proposed Iran nuclear deal, have only accentuated the demise. More information about the underlying causes and the current state of oil prices can be found in previous globalEDGE blog posts containing the Oil tag.

Commodities are generally a good measure of how the market is doing overall; how abundant and fluid certain resources are can explain a lot about the economy and its patterns. When so much of the world, independent and corporate investors alike, has deeply vested interests in such a large market-one whose health is constantly up for debate, it is difficult to know when the warning signs are considerably worrying. Internationally, the world is facing a massive supply glut with Middle Eastern producers turning over oil at record production rates and the recent emergence of other serious oil producers, including the U.S. Even with such steep price drops, petroleum is not the only factor. One commodity index in particular, that tracks an array of different commodities, is currently trading far below recorded levels from before December 2008. Prices drop, the market recalibrates, and volatility is appeased, if only temporarily. But with recent global events surrounding Greece banks and the Chinese market bubble, perhaps it is time to look below the surface and into the past. 

For the first time in nearly 80 years, Mexico is holding an oil auction in which energy firms from all over the world will compete. Is this bid for oil going to hold lackluster results or is it the key for Mexico's energy reform? Petróleos Mexicanos, mononymously known as Pemex, virtually controls the entire nation’s oil industry. Nationalized in 1938, Pemex was designed to push out external parties like the U.K. and the U.S. following major labor disputes and their ostensible domination of the energy markets. Therefore, the auctions being held are a step, or leap, in the opposite direction. The bidding marks the first time ever that private oil companies are being allowed to set up in Mexico and that oil contracts are being sold off. For a country whose oil industry has been monopolized for 77 years, the auctioning offers a world of possibilities to both Mexico and its prospective investors. To be exact, the sell-off is estimated to draw in a revitalizing $62.5 billion for the Mexican economy.

The arctic ice shelves pose a difficult question to the world’s largest oil companies. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, they may contain the largest remaining untapped oil reserves on the planet, but accessing this oil requires large amounts of time and money. Factor in the recent oil crash and the increasingly uncertain outlook for the industry, and pursuing arctic oil becomes a gamble akin to a billion dollar toss up.

Oil prices dipped on Monday due to the rising value of the dollar and the potential for an oversupply of oil. Global conditions and the turmoil in the Middle East caused oil barrel prices to rise, especially due to the gains that Islamic State militants made in Iraq after seizing the provincial capital of Ramadi. In addition, the dollar continued to rise against other major currencies, thus making raw materials less affordable to holders of the euro and other currencies.

Since last year, prices of oil have decreased by over fifty percent and have festered at some of their lowest rates in many years. This has occurred due to several factors, including decreasing global demand for oil and an increasing supply. Lately, however, demand for crude oil is on the rise and overall output has been growing in major oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Libya. It is yet to be seen if these events will continue as an industry trend for this year, but a potential change in oil prices could certainly occur.

In the wake of the drastic decline in oil prices since last July, and with the current crude oil prices about half of the 2014 peak, Royal Dutch Shell PLC announced Wednesday that it would buy fellow Oil and Gas Company, BG Group, in a deal amounting to approximately $70 billion. Assuming the deal is completed, this would be the largest energy merger since Exxon and Mobil in 1998, and would create the world’s largest independent producer of liquefied natural gas. The merger comes as an effort to create cost synergies, or eliminate overlapping costs, in order to offset the effect of low oil prices.

Crude oil is the traditional starting point for the many plastics that are essential to modern life. Approximately three percent of worldwide oil production is used to make plastics. Due to this relationship, the cost of plastic is closely tied to the price of oil. And since June, the price of oil has been cut in half, leading to a decrease in the price of new plastic.

With changing political office, comes changing economic policy. At least, that is what millions of Nigerians are hoping for from newly elected President Muhammadu Buhari. The Nigerian capital market responded positively to the change in leadership, gaining 8.30%, its single biggest daily gain all year. High optimism for the new leader to follow through on his promise to reshape the national economy is sorely needed at this point.

On Wednesday, the European Union Commission approved plans to combine the energy markets of its twenty-eight member countries into a unified energy market. The Commission stated that the EU Energy Union would provide many benefits to the countries of the EU, lessening their dependence on energy supplies from foreign countries and boosting their economic power significantly. The ambitious plan is facing some criticism, and has yet to be approved by the European Parliament as well as the EU's member countries, but it certainly has the potential for major influence on European economics.

This past week, the Obama Administration cleared a plan to override federal regulations on oil drilling off of Alaska's coast in the Arctic Ocean. The proposal is intended to establish drilling standards for the Chuckchi and Beaufort Seas, both of which are believed to be abundant in fossil fuels, and follows a growing emphasis in the international system on the Arctic's natural resources. Last January, 1,400 participants from several countries gathered in Tromsø, Norway to stake their claims at the Arctic Frontiers conference. Russia's increasing interest in the region, coupled with its growing military presence throughout international waters, gave the conference unprecedented significance.

Shortly following the coronation of the new King Salman of Saudi Arabia, the recently minted monarch quickly assured the global energy community that the kingdom would continue its policy of encouraging top oil exporters to raise their production levels. The king's message directly contradicts with global expectations that the death of King Abdullah might lead to fundamental changes in Saudi Arabia's oil policy, but most analysts now agree that the royal family will resist any sharp changes in policy, especially as it tries to navigate multiple foreign policy challenges in the region.

In yesterday’s blog post, we spoke of the how falling oil prices could lead to increased mergers and acquisitions in the private sector. This blog will focus on the public sector and which countries benefit the most from these low energy prices. Commodity pricing is as much an art as it is a science; the fundamentals of supply and demand clarify most of these fluctuations, however they do not properly explain the exaggerated influence prices. The saturated, oversupplied market is now creating volatility for producers, but opportunities exist for speculative nations looking to stabilize or expand their global economic footprint.

The extremely low oil prices that have characterized the energy industry for the past few months are making waves all around the world. In some countries, low prices have been seen as a benefit; in others, not so much. A major consequence has arisen that will affect all nations regardless of economic status: oil corporation mergers and takeovers. Historically, it has generally been the case that when there are low prices in the energy industry, mergers and acquisitions occur between bigger and smaller firms. Several plants and companies that originally profited immensely off of high oil prices, will now either have to severely change business strategies or be forced to relinquish control to more powerful firms in the industry.

In this month’s blog series, globalEDGE features the global energy industry. This series will discuss the industry outlook for 2015, the potential for mergers and takeovers, countries that benefit from falling oil prices, global carbon markets, and volcanoes as an energy source. Many analysts hold the belief that oil prices will continue to fall in the first half of 2015, before increasing in the second half of the year. The shale revolution in the United States, Saudi Arabia’s insistence on maintaining its market share, and a weak global economy have all contributed to the lowest oil price per barrel in five and a half years.

Oil prices dropped by 42% in 2014, and hit a five and a half year low on Monday. Many analysts are projecting that the price of oil is only going to continue to decrease in the near future. This drop in oil prices is having a drastic effect in a multitude of sectors of the economy, all across the world. What is causing oil prices, which have continually risen in the past decade, to suddenly crash? There is not a single source of this crash, but rather a plurality of causes.

There is no question that Nigeria will face many challenges in early 2015, which could individually or collectively have serious economic implications for the nation and the region. The constant threat of violence from the militant Islamist group Boko Haram, upcoming political elections, and the decline in oil prices all threaten the political and economic stability in Nigeria. The question is will Nigeria be able to weather the economic onslaught that these events could produce.

As discussed in an earlier blog post, oil prices are continuing to fall as global demand weakens, affecting economies around the globe, such as the United States, Norway, and Saudi Arabia. One of the countries most affected is Russia, which heavily depends on the oil industry, so much so that it makes up an estimated 60% of the country’s exports. The Russian government began the year expecting oil prices to be near $96 a barrel, and with current oil prices well below this number, there is reason to worry about Russia’s economy.

Oil prices fell 6.7% per barrel on November 27th after OPEC decided not to cut production. Currencies linked to oil such as the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone took a hit, as prices this low will cause many fracking companies to become unprofitable. Low cost producers in countries like Saudi Arabia will be able to sustain small profits at such low prices, but U.S. fracking companies are not profitable at a price under $70 per barrel. Falling oil prices are a positive sign for economies worldwide, since it acts like a tax cut for consumers. The current price weakness can be somewhat attributed to weak demand globally, but the rise of fracking worldwide leads us to believe that there might be an oversupply.

Amidst the overshadowing election events, a Texas company defied the norm and exported domestic oil to a foreign customer, despite the government ban on exporting crude oil. This ban has been in effect since the 1970’s Arab Oil Embargo crisis. The company, BHP Billiton, struck a deal to sell $50 million worth of a lightweight-oil called condensate to foreign purchasers without government approval. This is the first instance where a company has exported US crude oil without the consent of the government. Since the 1970 ban, the US has kept all crude oil within the country and as a result created a huge surplus in storage. With all of this extra oil build up, companies have been longing to sell it and remove the ban. However, this could have big implications for US consumers of oil.

It has been almost a year since the expiry of the 75-year-old concession of Abu Dhabi with western oil companies. Having been working as service providers and not getting paid in oil this past year, the Western oil companies are among the hopefuls to win the bidding for Abu Dhabi’s new oil concession. These companies are hoping to keep their stakes in the Persian Gulf, which is the one of the few major oil-producing areas that allows international companies to hold direct shares. Now they are worried about losing their stakes because of the rising interest of Asian oil companies in this lucrative oil business.

The global price of oil has fallen sharply since June, when oil prices hit $115 a barrel. Now, only four months later, the price for a barrel of oil has dropped to $85, and it could keep dropping. Global supply of oil has increased in recent years, especially in countries outside OPEC, which is one reason for the drop in prices. A more concerning reason that could be adding to the lower prices is a global drop in demand, due to slowing economies, which could signal another global economic downturn. Whatever the reasons, the suddenly low oil prices could have huge impacts around the globe, positively or negatively affecting economies that rely on the production or use of oil.

Much of the talk surrounding biofuels in the past has centered on corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugarcane, which are known as first generation biofuels. These food crops were seen by many as a way to become more energy independent, as they could be processed to create ethanol fuel that in turn could replace our dependence on oil. The excitement of this prospect led many countries, such as the United States, to implement mandates requiring specific amounts of ethanol to be mixed with gasoline. These countries hoped that ethanol could help by lessening the impact of oil prices on the economy and by saving the environment from the increasing use of oil.

Within the past week, the Congress of Mexico has approved new legislation that will allow the country's energy industry to award contracts to private oil companies. As a result of these new reforms, not only will the state-owned oil giant Pemex lose its monopoly over the country's oil sector that it's held since 1938, but foreign oil firms will also be able to enter the lucrative Mexican oil market.

As Brazil is busy finishing the last construction for the 2014 World Cup, Qatar, the host of the 2022 World Cup, has started its infrastructure improvement plan to welcome its guests from all over the world. This preparation has really brought Qatar into the eyes of investors with high expectations for economic gains. Qatar is not alone, as we see millions of “host money” from foreign investors has pushed the UAE’s stock market also to a new high. This blog will give you the overviews of Qatar’s and the UAE’s economy in the recent years and will explain the reason why Qatar and the UAE have experienced growth in foreign investment.

Within the next two decades, Brazil is expected to triple oil production and move from the 12th top oil producer to the 6th according to the 2013 World Energy Outlook Report generated by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The predicted success of Brazil’s energy industry can be attributed to the auctioning of the Libra oil field which holds 8 to 12 billion barrels of recoverable oil. With a supply of oil this substantial, the world’s crude oil demand could be fulfilled for up to 9 weeks alone by Libra.

In a recent study done by Chatham House, a world-leading source of independent analysis based out of London, it was found that large amounts of Nigerian crude oil was being stolen. The research discovered that at least 100,000 barrels of oil per day, or around 5% of total output, were stolen in the first quarter of 2013. The extensive network of exported stolen oil includes thieves, financial centers, commodities traders, politicians, and international trade.

Chinese oil companies that have held exclusive oil-extraction privileges for nearly a decade in Western Africa are now facing resistance from governments who claim that the Chinese are "gouging, polluting, or hogging valuable tracts." In Niger, private auditors have recently uncovered large costs and impractical charges made by the China National Petroleum Corporation, which has added another argument for the revisions of trade agreements that have already saved Niger tens of millions of dollars from the Chinese. In neighboring Chad, the government recently shut down Chinese oil operations after discovering immense amounts of environmental pollution within their borders. Gabon has also joined in the fight against the Chinese petroleum corporation, which surprised the oil industry by withdrawing a permit from another Chinese state-owned company, Sinopec, and giving it instead to a newly created national oil company.

Nigeria’s economy has been faltering due to struggles in the oil industry. The country is the largest oil producer in Africa, outputting around two million barrels per day and consuming just 267,000 barrels per day. Interestingly enough, Nigeria has a strong dependence on fuel imports. Their struggles stem from the fact that they simply don’t have enough refineries, and the ones that exist are not maintained well enough to work to their full capabilities. The industry has been slipping into turmoil, as industrial scale theft and inefficient fuel subsidy policies have slowed production significantly.

International Energy Agency (IEA) reported on Tuesday that the shale oil recently found in the United States will help meet most of the world's oil demand in the next five years. It is significant to the world market as well as to the U.S. itself because it eliminates the threat of future energy shortage and reshapes the U.S energy market and its relationship with other countries.

Controversies surrounding the Keystone XL pipeline have arisen yet again due to the pipeline rupture that occurred in Arkansas suburbs just last week. Over 12 thousand barrels of heavy crude oil flowed into a residential neighborhood, rendering about 24 families homeless during the evacuation. Even though an around-the-clock cleanup began last Saturday, what will this mean for Pegasus pipeline, run by Exxon Mobil? And also, how will the leak affect public opinion regarding the implementation of the Keystone XL pipeline?

While Cyprus is experiencing economic woes and Turkey is finding its way out of a huge European debt crisis, the energy relationship between Cyprus and Turkey regarding gas and oil is causing stress for both countries. On Wednesday, Turkey announced the suspension of energy projects with Italian giant ENI because the company expanded the exploration for oil and gas to Cyprus. ENI’s decision on the project expansion in Cyprus has created hope of economic recovery Cyprus but it infuriated Turkey since the project would cut down the energy plan in Turkey.

What seemed unthinkable just a half decade ago is now reality. The United States has surpassed Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest fuel producer. Crude output in the U.S. has hit a 20 year high and has produced the most fuel in the world for the first time since 2002. The United States is producing 11.65 million barrels of liquid fuel a day (which includes crude, refined petroleum products, and biofuels) surpassing the Saudi Arabian output of 11.25 million barrels a day.

The changing global climate has become increasingly more difficult to ignore due to climbing air and water temperatures, rising sea levels, and melting of polar snow and ice. Recent reports have stated that the area of ice in the arctic has never been smaller, which has recently caught the attention of Asian economists. The opening of the Arctic north promises new trade routes, untapped reserves of oil, and an abundance of minerals to discover.

For the past few weeks, Western states have not only imposed sanctions on Iran, but also convinced many Asian countries to do the same.  These sanctions are an economically crippling bargaining technique to pressure Iranian officials into discontinuing their uranium enrichment program, which American and European officials claim to be a nuclear weapons program with malicious intent but Iranian officials claim to peaceful and a national right.  Furthermore, many financial institutions that interact closely with Iran’s central bank have also been targeted.  The assets of Iran’s central bank are currently frozen that are linked to Tehran.

With many concerns and debates regarding climate change, countries around the world are looking for ways to reduce carbon emissions. These carbon emissions happen to be the leading cause of climate change and large coal-burning industries are mostly responsible. One way to reduce these harmful emissions involves a new technology that captures carbon dioxide from the air and pumps it directly underground for permanent storage. This project was operated in Germany, Scotland, and the United States with little success. However, the two largest consumers of carbon dioxide, China and the United States, are investigating a new way to reduce carbon output and are looking toward a surprising industry for this solution.

As the earth’s conventional oil supply continues to diminish, the discovery of new fuel types is becoming as important as ever.  The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has recently released a statement stating that global tight oil reserves could produce as many as 300 billion barrels.  Tight oil is another name for shale oil, which is a form of light crude oil found in shale deep below the earth’s surface.  Although it will most likely be a decade before big supplies of tight oil are produced, the future production could rival the conventional oil production in Saudi Arabia.

Oil is quite possibly the single most important commodity in the modern world economy.  Those countries with abundant sources of the valuable substance are in a strong position to trade with producers around the world who cannot do business without it.  CNBC has put together a list of the top fifteen countries in terms of confirmed oil reserves.  The ramifications of this list are much greater than they may initially seem. 

Everyone has been hearing about it lately.  Look at any news site and it will be the top story if not many of the top five stories.  Ever since Mohamed Al Bouazizi set himself on fire in December to protest Tunisia’s economic situation, revolution has been spreading across the Middle East.  These conflicts are demonstrating how some of the world’s smallest countries can have great effects on the rest of the planet.

Check out these two articles from the New York TImes on the recent opening of oil fields in Iraq. This article from December discusses the second round of bids that happened a few weeks ago. The second article is from last June, which discusses the impact of opening the fields to foreign investment.