globalEDGE Blog Archive March 2015

Late last year, the RUB-USD exchange rate dipped significantly, which carried on into 2015 with the ruble’s unfaltering depreciation against the dollar. This now full-fledged currency crisis has Russia’s Central Bank bailing out its private banking sector and reinstating a unique quantitative easing strategy that aims to spur foreign investment and have a positive impact on GDP. Despite the government scrambling to stabilize its currency, economic recession in 2015 seems inevitable.

In February, the inflation rate in the United Kingdom fell to 0%. This is the lowest rate since records of inflation were first taken in 1960. Official figures demonstrate that lower prices of transportation, food, and computer goods helped to cut the rate back from January’s inflation rate of 0.3%. Although these figures are good indicators in some ways, they can also impact the interest rates set by the Monetary Policy Committee, which is considering raising the rates from their record low of 0.5%.

China’s manufacturing and factory sector hit an 11-month low in March, alarming investors worldwide. This indicator is yet another under-performing expectation that will likely have a negative effect on China’s gloomy first quarter. Ultimately these results are detrimental to the Chinese Government's 7% GDP growth target and will likely lead to new stimulus measures during a period of slow economic grw.

Last Friday, the United Nations announced that the world may be facing a major shortage of water supplies in about fifteen years. Available water for consumption and other uses may be reduced by 40% as a result of factors such as urbanization, high living standards, heavy industry usage, and booming population growth. The report calls for drastic measures to keep freshwater as a readily available resource for the future, as some regions of the world are already starting to run out of water and aquifers are becoming exploited beyond a sustainable level. This will mean cutting down on heavy water consumption and use, a move which will affect people and industries worldwide.

The Nile River is a major influence on the economies it encompasses, and in the past it has been controversial how the energy, space, and water is allocated amongst the countries it passes through. Ethiopia is constructing a massive dam costing billions of dollars on the Blue Nile, which will distort the previous allocation of water agreed by the countries surrounding the river. Most of the disagreement in the initial stages of project development stemmed from this allocation dispute, but the presidents of Egypt and Sudan, as well as the Ethiopian Prime Minister, all recently signed a contract pledging to better share the water and resources of the Nile. On Monday, Egypt agreed to a preliminary deal with Ethiopia on the construction of the dam.

Brazil and Mexico have renewed vehicle quotas for four years, postponing the creation of a free trade agreement to at least 2019. The two largest Latin American economies originally had free trade of vehicles for a brief period in 2011 and 2012, but transitioned to a quota system after Brazil complained of economic issues that were hurting the nation’s competitiveness abroad, especially in the auto industry. The new deal penned earlier this month permits $1.56 billion of duty-free vehicle imports for the first year of the agreement. This amount will increase by 3% every year until 2019 when the nations will return to free trade, barring any extension or renewal of the quota system.

With the March 31st application deadline quickly approaching for countries interested in joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Australia is rethinking its prior decision not to apply. The investment bank, led by China, recently added the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Germany as members, even though the United States has issued warnings about the bank. The decision by these four major European countries to join the bank against United States wishes has led Australia to reconsider its position on AIIB, and look to possibly invest up to $3 billion in the AIIB.

globalEDGE is a fantastic resource for discovering new information about the changing Caribbean business climate. Our CARICOM trade bloc section provides more details about the Caribbean Community. Upon visiting this section, you will find a brief history of the trade bloc as well as statistics and related agreements. Also, globalEDGE has compiled a list of external resources for those interested in exploring the Caribbean business area in greater depth. Some examples are listed below.

With diverse ecosystems, the ocean is a key source of marine life and resources. Because the Caribbean region is surrounded by ocean, exporting marine resources could potentially be a key driver in the region's economy. However, because of overexploitation and poor management, many Caribbean countries have not made full use of their marine resources, which has limited their ability to expand economically.

It has been 5 years since Haiti was struck with one of the worst earthquakes in recent times. The country has been trying to bounce back from the devastation and finally the government is saying Haiti is open for business. Foreign investment is a major focus right now for Haiti, as its aid from around the world is starting to dry up. Many international investors are expressing great interest in Haiti, specifically in the telecommunications, manufacturing, and beverage industries.

With the proposed re-establishment of normal diplomatic relations and the potential easing of economic sanctions between the United States and Cuba, trade relations between the two nations have begun to thaw. Cuba offers a new market of avid consumers, and an economy that could potentially be a key contributor to the Caribbean region. Even though the embargo may potentially be lifted, there are several challenges that remain to be overcome for Cuba and U.S. to be successful as trade partners.

In this high-tech century, news about hackers breaking into corporate information systems is not surprising anymore. Rather, it has become a common administrative issue for businesses and requires special attention from the board of directors, since cyber-security breaches can result in significant business losses if not handled properly. This blog post will review the recent findings from the World Economic Forum and McKinsey and provide the approaches that company leaders can follow to reduce cyber risks.

Overall, the Caribbean region has lagged in its recovery from the global recession that began six years ago. In some Eastern Caribbean nations, unemployment is still as high as 20% and debt as a percentage of GDP exceeds 100%. There has also been a change in the region’s economic environment, as many nations are transferring their focus from agriculture to services. For sustainable economic growth to occur, countries in the Caribbean need to diversify their economies and expand their export markets.

In recent developments of the ongoing deterioration of relations between the United States and Venezuela, the U.S. government sanctioned multiple Venezuela government officials for alleged human rights violations, demanded the release of political prisoners, and warned against blaming American policies for the country's continued economic and political problems. While this exchange or harsh rhetoric and sanctions is nothing new for the U.S. and countries that differ greatly from its foreign policy goals, what makes this episode especially noteworthy is that it could entail significant consequences for American prospects for doing business within the Latin American region, and especially within Cuba.

In recent years, immigration has been a topic that has been widely discussed globally, from the U.S. to the EU to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.  There are other aspects of immigration that are often not considered that tend to slip through the cracks of the political quagmire, and those aspects can influence the global economy and can be far-reaching.  One such aspect is remittance, which is the transfer of money from a worker in a foreign country back to individuals back in their home country, typically family members and friends.

On Monday, March 9, Ghana and the International Monetary Fund made a deal to help stabilize the country’s struggling economy. The three-year plan was proposed after discussion of the government’s failure in reach targets for inflation, the budget deficit, and overall GDP growth. Members of the minority opposition “New Patriotic Party” believe that Ghana’s current economic state is the worst it’s been in over two decades.

The European Union is in a metamorphic phase, as illustrated by globalEDGE’s various blog posts on the topic. The trade bloc is trying desperately to stabilize its currency, sustain healthy industry growth, and prevent Greece from defaulting on sovereign debt. These nations have remained resilient before and many economists believe they will stand the test of time, for there is strength in numbers. Six countries are currently in the process to become full-fledged members. One of the candidates is Iceland.

As the Eurozone progressively works on pulling out of financial distress, the economy is getting a much needed boost from its relatively weak euro. The euro has fallen 19 percent against the U.S. dollar ($1.11/euro) and 12.5 percent against the U.K. Sterling (0.73/euro).The weak euro is a distinctive element for providing a big boost for exporters. Moody’s, z credit rating agency, explains the drop in the euro as “positive for companies that have the majority of their cost bases in the euro area with significant sales to regions outside it."

Ireland’s manufacturing output soared in February. In fact, its growth in this sector reached its highest level in the last 15 years, according to the Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). In analyzing the PMI, any number above 50 indicates manufacturing expansion. In February, Ireland’s PMI increased to 57.5, while the Eurozone’s PMI remained unchanged at 51.0 from the prior month. Ireland’s high PMI score is a result of high growth in manufacturing orders, production, and jobs.

India’s Finance Minister announced a new federal budget over the weekend. The budget emphasizes increasing growth and investment, while putting undesirable but necessary reforms on the back burner.

With a lot of business areas in developed markets and industries becoming saturated, many companies are starting to look into newer product categories in emerging markets. A key driver in making this transition into emerging markets successful is implementing a diversified strategy. Companies need to be innovative in these new markets, as existing capabilities are not often in line with the wants and needs of the newer prospects.

The Internet of Things (IoT) connects physical objects with the internet and provides the ability to transfer data over a network. This innovative concept is likely to have an enormous impact on the IT sector. This technology is already revolutionizing the sports industry, as large amounts of data are captured during sporting events to help improve player performance and strategy. IoT is expected to generate data from diverse locations and communicate it through massive networks, thereby increasing the need to better store and process such data. Cloud computing is there to solve this problem, which enables central data storage and remote online access to various resources and services.