globalEDGE Blog Archive March 2016

The globalEDGE team has added a new market to the Economic Classification section. The mature markets section is brand new and highlights the world's most developed countries, based on the Russell Index Global Guidebook Country Classifications. A statistics section provides data on 17 different fields for each of the mature market countries, allowing users to compare countries with one another along with a market average. There is also a risk comparator tab that allows users to compare credit risk and economic risk among mature market countries. A resource segment is provided to offer access to outside mature and developed market resources. Make sure to check out the mature markets section today, along with the emerging and frontier markets sections under globalEDGE’s economic classification section.

As early as last year, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that the country could expect a rate hike in consumer tax rates. Last year, it was slated to take effect beginning 2017, but the agenda has since then been moved up quite a bit. Economists are predicting the economic plan may take place as early as late 2016 or very early 2017, as opposed to the previously believed mid to late 2017 timeline. Japan is required first and foremost to think about its own economy and whether or not its consumers could handle another rate hike, but other global factors have become more pressing since Abe’s initial announcement in 2015.

It is no secret that China has experienced massive capital outflows over the past year, and it also isn’t a secret where a lot of this capital is going. Capital flows from China to the U.S. have occurred at record levels in 2015 and the first quarter of 2016, with a large portion of these flows going into real estate and other hard assets. What is particularly interesting, however, is the recent acceleration of Chinese investment in the hospitality industry of the U.S., mainly hotels. It isn’t an entirely new phenomena, as evidenced by the Chinese purchase of the historic Waldorf Astoria in 2014 for $1.95 Billion. It is striking, however, how quickly the pace of investments has increased. Much of the high profile purchasing comes from one company, Anbang Insurance, but represents a larger ideal within China.

As container ships continue to grow larger and as global trade increases, the need for automated shipping terminals is apparent. The United States has four such terminals, where computer-operated robots automatically load and unload shipping containers from massive cargo ships. There is no doubt that automation boosts productivity and cuts labor costs; however, it remains to be seen whether automation is worth the hefty investment.

As the world becomes increasingly global and more businesses look to expand internationally, an evaluation of risk can be crucial when making business decisions. Since 2012, ONDD (Office national du Ducroire) has evaluated seven specific types of risk in over 180 countries, releasing the rankings to the public. The rankings cover areas such as commercial risk, short term credit risk, war risk, and risk of expropriation and government action. The rankings for 2016 were released this month and are now available to view in our Database of International Business Statistics (DIBS), where you can filter the data by year, country, and specific risk area. Being aware of risk is important for international businesses and the ONDD data set is a useful tool to begin your research.

Somali-based piracy cost the international community over $6 billion in 2012, but the decrease over the past few years has been due to increased reliance on maritime security. The decrease in piracy around the Eastern coasts of Africa can be seen as a success; however, piracy is increasing off the coast of Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea. The piracy in the Gulf of Guinea is likely due to the lack of prevalent law enforcement, the easy access to illegal markets, and a target rich environment.

The expansion of the Panama Canal has overcome labor disputes, legal battles, and even technical issues, but the project is almost complete. When projects such as these occur on such a massive scale, big delays and budget overruns are inevitable, but usually the financial backers can always find the money to complete the projects.  However, this may not be the case for the Nicaragua Canal. This canal is being built in order to allow large Post-Panamax ships to travel as the Panama Canal’s current locks are not big enough. Nicaraguan officials also believe that the investment will boost the economy and living standards. The canal would be one of the largest infrastructure projects in human history, but many are skeptical as no evidence of actual construction has been found since August 2015, despite the Nicaraguan government insisting that ground was being broken.

Since 2007, a construction project has been underway for a third set of locks for the Panama Canal. Undertaken by the GUPC, the completion of locks was delayed for years due to construction problems and contractual issues. However, it looks as though the project is nearing fulfillment. Earlier this month, the consortium behind the expansion announced they were ready to enter the trial phase for the expanded waterway. In a series of over 2,000 investigations, the GUPC plans to test the control systems and electric power that operate the new locks in the Pacific and Caribbean sections of the canal. After this phase, the plan is to run a set of navigation tests during the month of May. If all tests are successful, an expanded Panama Canal could become a reality in the second half of the year.

Coface is holding its annual Country Risk Conference Wednesday, May 4, 2016 in New York, NY. This conference is designed to help those involved in international trade to better understand the related risks in order to make sound business and investment decisions. Conference attendees typically include representatives from companies, banks, and academic institutions, as well as professionals from the international trade community. This year’s conference will feature a panel of speakers who will discuss the following topics: countries hardest hit by low oil prices, Latin America and Canada after the commodities boom, risk agility and decision making in an era of man-made risks, and more.

Arctic temperatures are rising at double the rate of anywhere else on the planet, subsequently leading to polar ice caps' permanent coverage to shrink by 10% a decade, a rate which could result in ice free summers in the Arctic by the end of this century. While the Arctic thaw is a major concern from an environmental standpoint, it is also having significant implications on the global transportation industry.

There is no question that a slowdown in global trade can have far-reaching implications. Weakened demand for commodities in Asia and an economic slowdown in key emerging markets, particularly China, have caused global trade to stall. This trade slowdown, coupled with falling freight rates, has left the global shipping industry in dire straits.

London Stock Exchange (LSE) and Deutsche Boerse, two European stock exchanges, have agreed on terms for a merger. With a combined value of about $30 billion, this merger will create one of the largest exchange companies in the world. It is said that combining the two companies will save them around $500 million a year. This new company, UK TopCo, has attracted attention from U.S. based companies, some more hostile than others. The possibility of upset within the merging companies along with the EU Referendum pose as possibly detrimental threats to this deal. 

Atiur Rahman, the governor of Bangladesh’s central bank, stepped down Tuesday after over $100 million was stolen from the bank’s account at the New York Fed last month. Approximately 80% of the stolen amount was transferred to personal accounts in the Philippines, while the rest made its way to a bank in Sri Lanka. Official codes were used to facilitate the theft, and a representative from Bangladesh’s ministry of finance confirmed that the currently unknown criminals had the necessary codes to authorize the transfers. The American Fed has been accused of irregular activity, while questions were raised about the quality of security on the Asian country’s end.

Ethiopia plans to become a top regional exporter in electricity under a new 2015-2020 development plan. It is attempting to tap several rivers for power generation, which is a part of its plans to boost its manufacturing, help to industrialize its agrarian economy, and to export power to countries in Northern and Southern Africa. A $4 billion deal was signed with an U.S.-Icelandic firm in 2013 to build a private-run 1000 megawatt geothermal plant and more power generating projects are being negotiated with other international companies. Egypt is dependent on the Nile, and is concerned that the Renaissance Dam would reduce the river’s flow. In addition, Kenya stated that the Gibe 3 dam and its related irrigation scheme could reduce the volume of water in its Lake Turkana. Low levels of rainfall this year have had an adverse impact on existing dams, and currently four hydropower plants are producing at low levels due to low water levels. There are several more concerns about these projects, namely the current ongoing severe drought and the environmental ramifications.

The online course modules section on globalEDGE, which can be located in the reference desk, provides a wealth of interactive educational tools pertinent both for the classroom and executive training. Modules contain updated case studies and anecdotes that are relevant in the ever changing international business environment. Some of the most popular categories of online course modules are the Culture, Exporting, and Doing Business In modules. The recently updated Exporting modules, which were produced in cooperation with the U.S. Commercial Service, were developed from the 2015 edition of A Basic Guide to Exporting, with each module representing one of the book’s seventeen chapters. Users of all ages and international business experience level will find these modules insightful and can benefit from the multitude of resources and tools provided.

Have you visited the Tools and Data section of globalEDGE lately? The Tools and Data section provides a wealth of information that is useful for students and business professionals alike. This sections features an MPI Index that helps users evaluate emerging markets around the world, a database of international business statistics, quizzes that test your global business knowledge, a country comparator tool, and much more. Explore this section of globalEDGE today and expand your international business knowledge!

On Tuesday, Iran launched a large number of ballistic missiles from silos all over the country. According to reports, the missiles can cover distances ranging from 190 to 1,242 miles. Reports from a local news agency reported that the missiles were launched as part of a supposed military exercise. An official statement from The Revolutionary Guards, a division of Iran's Armed Forces affiliated with the Islamic Revolution, declared that the missiles were launched to showcase Iran's "deterrent power" and "all-out readiness to confront threats". The United States has reacted unfavorably to the news. Just two months ago, the U.S. had imposed sanctions on Iran in reaction to missile tests run by the country last October, meant to disrupt further activity. Now, additional sanctions against Iran may be on the discussion table.

In the G-20 summit this past weekend, the world’s finance ministers agreed not to engage in currency wars to boost exports. Currencies in emerging markets have been battered since the financial crisis began in 2007. Traditionally, countries expect a payoff in a boost of exports when their currency is weak; however, it’s not been the case this time around. This is the case not only due to slowing growth in China and rapidly decreasing oil prices, which has hurt commodity exporters, but also the Federal Reserve’s increase in interest rates. The possibility of interest rate increases in the United States has put pressure on currency markets.

Since President John F. Kennedy signed the Presidential Proclamation 3447 on February 3, 1962, the United States has not been able to invest or do business with Cuba, as an “embargo on all trade” was declared. However, within the past two years, major changes have been made to reopen business opportunities between the U.S. and Cuba. In December 2014, President Obama met with Raul Castro and made the controversial decision to restore diplomatic relations with Cuba. More recently, in July last year, both countries reopened their embassies and U.S. companies such as Verizon, Netflix, and Airbnb have expanded into the Cuban market. Many believe that now is the ideal time to start doing business with Cuba; however, there are also a wide variety of potential issues that could complicate future transactions.

In 2015, India took over the title of the fastest growing economy from China. This is partly due to China’s slowest growth year in a quarter of a century. Even with the fast rising economy, India is a still a nation filled with poverty. Tim Worstall from Forbes stated that “Poverty is, after all, simply a lack of both stuff to consume and the wherewithal to purchase such, and economic growth is defined as more stuff and the incomes to purchase such. Thus economic growth is, by definition, the solution to poverty.” This is great news for the politicians as well as the people, as it shows a solution to a problem that has long plagued the sub-continent. The rupee, India’s currency, has been on a down swing lately, as value has stayed relatively low given the economic gains. This, however, may also be beneficial as it makes exports cheaper for foreign consumers, which leads to a greater volume of exports and thus a boost in GDP. 

Iran, OPEC’s number 3 crude oil producer, is expected to raise its oil exports to around 1.65 million barrels per day in March. Previously, Iran was exporting about 1.5 million barrels per day. With the rise in exports, the state-run National Iranian Oil Company plans to increase shipments to several countries throughout Europe. The National Iranian Oil Co. is expected to ship around 250,000-300,000 barrels per day to Europe beginning on March 1. France is contracted to receive about 200,000 barrels per day, while Spain is set to receive about 35,000 barrels per day. Russia and Greece are also expected to receive shipments from Iran.

In Freilassing, Germany, the traffic along one of Europe’s most busy expressways backs up many miles due to a newly installed checkpoint, where German police screen vehicles for hidden migrants. The traffic used to flow unaffected, but now, Austrians who work in Germany are having a harder time than ever simply traveling to their workplaces. Companies in Germany also must wait days longer to receive food and other goods deliveries. In addition, shoppers no longer travel across the borders because it has become too much of a hassle. These border controls are already causing a negative economic effect on all European countries involved, and this could only become worse as more border checks are implemented.

February was one of the best months for U.S. auto sales in recent years. Due to Presidents' Day deals, leap day transactions, and delayed demand from hazardous winter weather, overall sales from major automotive companies have far surpassed industry projections. The high numbers show promise for automotive sales in the U.S, with several analysts saying 2016 could be another record year for the industry. Investors were worried that 2015's prolific sales were to be the industry's peak; now many of them are changing their tune, expecting automotive prosperity to continue well into next year. It is keenly expected that companies based in foreign countries, especially Japan, will be playing a major role in the increased demand and consumption of automotive products in the U.S.

In 2001, Argentina was in the midst of an economic depression going on its third year. Unemployment rates were over 20%, and political instability and riots were fracturing the fabric of the country. Within a span of two weeks, the country saw five people hold the office of the president, while rampant hunger and looting occurred throughout the nation. The country had seen great economic growth throughout the 1990s, but by the end of the decade, this growth came crashing to a halt. Following failed austerity measures and the instability in the country, Argentina stopped payments on its debt, which at over $100 billion was the biggest default ever seen in the world.