globalEDGE Blog Archive May 2015

Latin America has often been considered one of the largest areas for economic growth; however, at the end of the first fiscal quarter, the region has contracted. Despite most economies in the region continuing their steady growth paths, Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela have decreased in their growth, with only Chile and Peru seeing an increase of growth. This can be attributed to global conditions, as other countries, such as China and Japan have also showed similar signs of decreased economic growth.

A faltering economy and civil unrest are turning away potential foreign investment in South Africa. The unemployment rate is at an 11 year high of 26.4% and the stagnating economy does not provide an optimistic outlook for this rate to drop. This bleak forecast is causing massive amounts of civil unrest in the form of violent protests all across the nation.

Despite low unemployment, the United Kingdom is currently faced with extremely low levels of productivity. As a country, the U.K. produces 30% less per hour than its counterparts in France and Germany while working on average more hours. The problem is deep-seeded and dates back to almost 1991. And although productivity was not high on the agenda during election season, Chancellor George Osbourne has stated that addressing the root causes is now a priority for Parliament.

On Monday, Narendra Modi, the prime minister of India, went to South Korea for a two-day visit with its president, Park Geun-hye. On that day, the duo signed seven agreements dealing with various economic issues, discussed investments and political issues, and improved their bilateral relations. The two countries have vastly improved their relationship, elevating their relationship to a "Special Strategic Partnership". By improving both political and economic ties between the countries and opening up special business deals, Modi's visit is one that could prove vastly beneficial to both countries and potentially the global economy.

A group of five of the world's largest banks are due to pay a large fine after manipulating the world foreign-exchange market. These fines were brought to the banks by U.K., U.S., and Swedish regulators late last year after finding out that currency traders were using chat rooms to manipulate exchange rates. Included in these banks are JPMorgan, Barclays, Citigroup, UBS, and RBS. Many of the banks have come forward with guilty pleas, which has been unheard of in past litigations against such institutions, as most of the time banks settle litigation without any admission of fault.

Ukraine’s economy has contracted ten of the last eleven quarters in an economic downturn that stretches back to 2012. In the first quarter of 2015 the economy contracted 18% compared to the same period last year, while Gross Domestic Product fell 7% in the same period. The underlying causes of this recession are both a downturn in the domestic market, as well as a struggle to sever its economic dependence on Russia and orient itself more towards the west, specifically the European Union.

Oil prices dipped on Monday due to the rising value of the dollar and the potential for an oversupply of oil. Global conditions and the turmoil in the Middle East caused oil barrel prices to rise, especially due to the gains that Islamic State militants made in Iraq after seizing the provincial capital of Ramadi. In addition, the dollar continued to rise against other major currencies, thus making raw materials less affordable to holders of the euro and other currencies.

Following a shockingly strong win for the Conservative Party in the recent United Kingdom elections, re-elected Prime Minister David Cameron promised an "in-out referendum" on the future of the U.K.'s membership within the European Union before the end of 2017. The referendum has its roots in the understandably unpopular red tape and bureaucracy that affects British business prospects within the E.U., especially with regard to the trade bloc's employment laws and health and safety issues. In spite of this, Cameron's announcement was met by fairly strong opposition within a study surveying a grouping of Britain's most influential business leaders.

Three-quarters of France’s electricity comes from nuclear power, which is a higher proportion than any other country in the world. In France alone, 220,000 people are hired to work in the energy industry. Because of this, French nuclear companies have been seen as leaders at the forefront of developing and operating uranium fueled reactors around the world. But recently, it was discovered that new power plants intended to showcase the energy industry’s latest technology are now extremely behind schedule and over budget. Problems at one site have raised doubts that it will even be completed.

With business becoming more and more global every day, small and medium sized companies are being pushed to start exporting if they want to stay competitive. This poses a challenge for these businesses however, as exporting has become more complex. For this reason, the U.S. Department of Commerce has made available its 11th edition of A Basic Guide to Exporting; this edition has been tailored to fit small and medium size businesses' needs for exporting in today's world.

Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, many large central banks have used quantitative easing in order to help stimulate their respective economies. Quantitative easing is the act of buying financial assets from lower level banks, thus increasing the price of the assets and increasing reserves in the economy. This has remained a common practice in central banks, and these banks have even increased the rates of easing since this year. However, economists are uncertain of how much easing has actually helped the global economy, and are wondering if it is time for a change in monetary policy practices.

Greece has been in constant negotiations with other European countries and institutions over Greece’s debt load, which if not resolved, can lead to another financial crisis. The European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund are both creditors to Greece, and Greece is expected to repay the IMF nearly 750 million Euros on Tuesday, but the remainder of the debt repayments total nearly 12 billion Euros for the rest of the year. While Athens has authorized its treasury to make the loan payment to the IMF, Greece will continue having trouble making the upcoming payments unless the creditors agree to give more aid as a part of the 240 billion euro bailout program.

Since the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was founded in 2014, there have been many discussions around this multilateral development bank concerning its purposes and functions. Despite the skepticism, AIIB, once launched, will accelerate Asia’s infrastructure development and international trade. This blog will briefly explain the impacts of the high-speed Silk Road, one of such projects that AIIB has announced recently.

The World Health Organization declared the West African nation of Liberia Ebola free on Saturday, after 42 days of no new reported cases. Liberia was one of the three West African nations that took the largest hit from the pandemic, the other two being Guinea and Sierra Leone. Guinea and Sierra Leone are still reporting new cases of the virus, however the number is significantly less than it was at the peak of the pandemic between the months of January and March. While the end may be in sight for the Ebola Virus, the economic consequences following the crisis are still very real and very painful.

Currently, the United Kingdom is going through its highest level of political elections, the race for prime minister. The frontrunners are the sitting PM David Cameron and the Labour Party’s Ed Miliband. Cameron, who’s long been known to favor the rock bottom interest rates that the country is currently experiencing, is the only PM in the country's history since the 1950s to hold office without even the slightest fluctuation of the interest rates. However, the anticipation of a changing political horizon brings immense speculation in both domestic and international markets.

When commodity prices tumbled last year, economists worldwide forecasted a steep decrease in GDP growth for many African countries. For decades, the continent has been worryingly dependent on commodities to power economic growth. So when prices collapsed, economics would also theoretically nosedive. While this was true of some nations, others managed to weather the storm. The dichotomy is most illustrated by the stark differences between the Sub-Saharan and East African regions.

A devastating 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck the South Asian mountain nation of Nepal on Saturday, April 25th. The quake caused almost 25,000 casualties including over 7,500 deaths. The earthquake also triggered massive avalanches in the mountains including one on Mount Everest that killed 19 people. In addition to this tragic human trauma, Nepal will be adversely affected by the economic aftershocks of this disaster for years to come.

Since last year, the rupiah has lost 10% of its value against the dollar. This is a serious matter following the Indonesian government, despite the fact that the country is currently welcoming delegations to the World Economic Forum. President Joko Widodo has promised stronger economic growth for the country, and has implemented measures to combat the currency decline. The Indonesian government hopes that by lifting visa fees for tourists and changing tax regulations, the value of the rupiah may rise again.

There is a large trade agreement under negotiation involving major economies around the Pacific. The Trans-Pacific Partnership will include the major economies of Japan and the United States, while also including the following ten countries: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. These twelve countries account for forty percent of global gross domestic product. It has been noted that China has been left out of this partnership because it has been criticized for not following trade rules. In the future, China will be able to join the partnership pending compliance to the Trans-Pacific Partnership’s standards.

Russia continues to slide towards a recession, as more reports from different industries show contraction. One of the more recent, undesirable stories comes from Russia’s auto industry. In the month of March, Russia’s auto industry faced a slew of indicators that reflect a downturn. A consumer report found that car demand decreased, while two of the world’s largest car manufacturers, General Motors based in the United States and Volkswagen from Germany, announced plans to downsize operations in Russia.