globalEDGE Blog Archive August 2015

On Monday, August 24th, Chinese stock markets fell by 8.5%, creating a major crash in the Shanghai Composite. Investors have called this day China's 'Black Monday' because of the dent it has left in China's business as well as the consequences it has caused for the global economy. The crash was caused by many factors including the staggering amount of people investing in the Chinese stock market, suffering businesses with high stocks and prices, margin calls, and the sudden selling of stocks by these same investors. The stock market crash has had damaging effects on billionaires and global markets. Although some markets seem to be in recovery, the crash could be seen as a sign of a bigger problem in China.

Even though global market trade has been in a bit of disorder lately, great advances are expected in trade between Asia, Africa, North America, and Europe by the year 2020. Currently, China's trade is growing, just not at margins seen in the past. With only an expected annual growth rate of 5% over the next five years, China's slowing trade growth comes at a cost from weaker growth among emerging markets. This slowing of China's trade will lead to new trade expansion in the global market.

The ECB is still struggling to keep Greece above water, while China is dealing with its market crash. The surprise yuan devaluation has agitated global markets further. When the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) decided to weaken its currency to get back on the right track, the USD, JPY, and EUR have been forced to adjust accordingly. Anytime a nation deliberately interferes with its currency, ripples are sent through the markets. China, with its 1.9% devaluation, has made waves. Last year, it was Europe in this position, and in 2013 it was Japan’s Abenomics with a weak yen at the helm of its policy that took center stage. With China’s recent move, countries all over are engaging in competitive devaluations to protect currencies. With an increasing number of countries being involuntary drawn in and a few apparent losers already, this is shaping up to be quite a turbulent currency war.

With multiple billion-dollar deals already announced this year, total takeover-deal announcements are on pace to reach $4.58 trillion in 2015. This mark would exceed to previous record high of $4.29 trillion set in 2007, just before the global financial meltdown.

Earlier this summer, the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) announced a $70 million commitment to bring in one billion dollars in public-private investments for developing countries. This plan will take place over the next five years, and the grant money given to Africa is expected to generate $750 million in investments from the private sector. The MCC is heavily investing in the continent’s energy sector, and the ultimate goal is to reduce poverty, increase economic growth, and attract more investors to countries such as Malawi, Benin, Lesotho, Liberia, Tanzania, Ghana, and Morocco. According to Kyeh Kim, the Deputy Vice-President of Compact Operations for the MCC, “these are countries that have a good track record in terms of good governance and democracy, have made strong efforts toward anti-corruption and are investing in their social sectors: education and health, as well as creating an enabling business environment through things like good fiscal policy, trade policy.”

Iraq’s economic stability has been impacted by budget deficits that have been worsened by low global oil prices. Since early 2014, Iraq has experienced massive economic decline due to territory that has been lost to militants in extremist groups, such as the Islamic State.

Greece's woes have been a well-publicized global topic over the past year. Between its staggering debt, its default on these debts, and discussion of its exile from the European Union, Greece has struggled with pulling its way through an web of economic troubles. There is, however, a glint of optimism for the country. On August 14th, Eurozone finance ministers approved Greece for a new bailout package, its third such deal in five years. The package was agreed upon after a half-year's worth of negotiations between Greece's government, the Eurozone, and the IMF. While not all Eurozone countries have yet given approval, the bailout is considered a relief for a situation that threatened to break the Eurozone apart. It is yet to be seen how it will affect Greece and the rest of the Eurozone in the long run.

There are presently many different happenings all across the globe that are affecting emerging market (EM) currencies. A lessening demand for commodities, a devaluation of China's currency, stalled global trade, and an expectation that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates are all bearing down on EM currencies. Some of the countries on the more drastic end of this are Russia, Colombia, and Brazil, whose currencies have fallen more than 30% over the past year, according to Bloomberg Business. Currently, emerging market currencies are in a "free fall" and according to Stephen Jen, a former International Monetary Fund economist, we should expect "a violent sell-off in some emerging market currencies in the second half of this year".

To say the global oil industry has had a turbulent year would be an understatement. The industry has been thrown into a violent tailspin, which has culminated in oil trading for under half the price it was fourteen months ago. While the initial cause of the crash was oversupply, several recent international developments, including the Chinese market downturn and the proposed Iran nuclear deal, have only accentuated the demise. More information about the underlying causes and the current state of oil prices can be found in previous globalEDGE blog posts containing the Oil tag.

The fire may have died down in China, but the burns it left in its wake are still raw, as the Chinese government attempts to bring back some stability by weakening the yuan. Devaluing its currency is proving to be rather injurious for Australian, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwanese dollars, as they took a rough tumble earlier this week. Luckily for America though, this drop has proven successful for the USD, as investors are getting bullish on its outcome in coming weeks. But this move on behalf of China’s bank is not to be overlooked or underestimated, since it is being hailed as a one-time fix.

As far as regional trade agreements are concerned, the upcoming Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is constantly being compared to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). United States citizens in particular are concerned as to whether free trade is actually beneficial to the U.S. economy and its workers. When NAFTA entered into force in 1994, tariffs were cut and laws were changed in order to allow free trade between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. While many proponents of the agreement believe that NAFTA has stimulated the economies of these countries, others believe that the framework for the agreement can serve as a warning of what could potentially go wrong with the TPP. 

At the end of the past decade, many millennials began to move in with their parents in order to save money throughout the recession and declining job market. Despite the belief that these young adults would move back to living independently once the economy improved, there are even more of them living at home than there were before according to a study by Pew Research Center. The national unemployment rate for young adults declined to 7.7% in the first four months of this year, compared to the 2010 figure of 12.4%. Despite this, the center analyzed recent census data and was able to find that 18 to 34-year-olds are less likely to be living apart from family members than they were even at the worst point of the recession, which was the worst economic downturn since the 1930’s.

Sporting events, such as the Olympics, have been thought to be large magnets for foreign investment, and large sums of money are often spent on developing state-of-the-art facilities. These sporting events have played a large role in raising awareness for the host country on the global stage and developing infrastructure. The 2015 Special Olympics World Games were recently hosted Los Angeles, California, and Brazil will be hosting the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro. China recently won the bid to host the 2022 Olympics, but the International Olympic Committee has been struggling to find suitable cities to host the 2024 Summer Olympics. However, lately there has been debates regarding the economic benefits of hosting the Olympics.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a trade agreement between twelve Pacific Rim countries with the goal of lowering or eliminating trade barriers, including tariffs, quotas, and other restrictions, between the nations involved. Major nations such as Canada, Japan, the United States, and Mexico all have stakes in the partnership. The proposal has undergone negotiations for several years, with plans to finalize the agreement going back to 2012. The passage of the TPP has been of high priority for the Obama Administration. However, there have been several controversies with the agreement that have prevented it from coming to fruition. In its latest round of negotiations, which ended on July 31, the partnership was delayed once again, citing disagreements over certain trade industries, potential human rights violations, and corporate interests. This time, it looks to be a bitter blow for the TPP.