globalEDGE Blog - Page 129

As early as last year, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that the country could expect a rate hike in consumer tax rates. Last year, it was slated to take effect beginning 2017, but the agenda has since then been moved up quite a bit. Economists are predicting the economic plan may take place as early as late 2016 or very early 2017, as opposed to the previously believed mid to late 2017 timeline. Japan is required first and foremost to think about its own economy and whether or not its consumers could handle another rate hike, but other global factors have become more pressing since Abe’s initial announcement in 2015.

It is no secret that China has experienced massive capital outflows over the past year, and it also isn’t a secret where a lot of this capital is going. Capital flows from China to the U.S. have occurred at record levels in 2015 and the first quarter of 2016, with a large portion of these flows going into real estate and other hard assets. What is particularly interesting, however, is the recent acceleration of Chinese investment in the hospitality industry of the U.S., mainly hotels. It isn’t an entirely new phenomena, as evidenced by the Chinese purchase of the historic Waldorf Astoria in 2014 for $1.95 Billion. It is striking, however, how quickly the pace of investments has increased. Much of the high profile purchasing comes from one company, Anbang Insurance, but represents a larger ideal within China.

As container ships continue to grow larger and as global trade increases, the need for automated shipping terminals is apparent. The United States has four such terminals, where computer-operated robots automatically load and unload shipping containers from massive cargo ships. There is no doubt that automation boosts productivity and cuts labor costs; however, it remains to be seen whether automation is worth the hefty investment.

As the world becomes increasingly global and more businesses look to expand internationally, an evaluation of risk can be crucial when making business decisions. Since 2012, ONDD (Office national du Ducroire) has evaluated seven specific types of risk in over 180 countries, releasing the rankings to the public. The rankings cover areas such as commercial risk, short term credit risk, war risk, and risk of expropriation and government action. The rankings for 2016 were released this month and are now available to view in our Database of International Business Statistics (DIBS), where you can filter the data by year, country, and specific risk area. Being aware of risk is important for international businesses and the ONDD data set is a useful tool to begin your research.

Somali-based piracy cost the international community over $6 billion in 2012, but the decrease over the past few years has been due to increased reliance on maritime security. The decrease in piracy around the Eastern coasts of Africa can be seen as a success; however, piracy is increasing off the coast of Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea. The piracy in the Gulf of Guinea is likely due to the lack of prevalent law enforcement, the easy access to illegal markets, and a target rich environment.

The expansion of the Panama Canal has overcome labor disputes, legal battles, and even technical issues, but the project is almost complete. When projects such as these occur on such a massive scale, big delays and budget overruns are inevitable, but usually the financial backers can always find the money to complete the projects.  However, this may not be the case for the Nicaragua Canal. This canal is being built in order to allow large Post-Panamax ships to travel as the Panama Canal’s current locks are not big enough. Nicaraguan officials also believe that the investment will boost the economy and living standards. The canal would be one of the largest infrastructure projects in human history, but many are skeptical as no evidence of actual construction has been found since August 2015, despite the Nicaraguan government insisting that ground was being broken.

Since 2007, a construction project has been underway for a third set of locks for the Panama Canal. Undertaken by the GUPC, the completion of locks was delayed for years due to construction problems and contractual issues. However, it looks as though the project is nearing fulfillment. Earlier this month, the consortium behind the expansion announced they were ready to enter the trial phase for the expanded waterway. In a series of over 2,000 investigations, the GUPC plans to test the control systems and electric power that operate the new locks in the Pacific and Caribbean sections of the canal. After this phase, the plan is to run a set of navigation tests during the month of May. If all tests are successful, an expanded Panama Canal could become a reality in the second half of the year.

Coface is holding its annual Country Risk Conference Wednesday, May 4, 2016 in New York, NY. This conference is designed to help those involved in international trade to better understand the related risks in order to make sound business and investment decisions. Conference attendees typically include representatives from companies, banks, and academic institutions, as well as professionals from the international trade community. This year’s conference will feature a panel of speakers who will discuss the following topics: countries hardest hit by low oil prices, Latin America and Canada after the commodities boom, risk agility and decision making in an era of man-made risks, and more.

Arctic temperatures are rising at double the rate of anywhere else on the planet, subsequently leading to polar ice caps' permanent coverage to shrink by 10% a decade, a rate which could result in ice free summers in the Arctic by the end of this century. While the Arctic thaw is a major concern from an environmental standpoint, it is also having significant implications on the global transportation industry.

There is no question that a slowdown in global trade can have far-reaching implications. Weakened demand for commodities in Asia and an economic slowdown in key emerging markets, particularly China, have caused global trade to stall. This trade slowdown, coupled with falling freight rates, has left the global shipping industry in dire straits.