Europe increases military spending amid Ukraine aid uncertainty

After U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent threats to withdraw military aid to Ukraine, European countries have continued to increase their military spending. The U.K., Germany, and Denmark have recently pledged to increase their military spending while Eastern European countries have already increased their spending.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced they would accelerate plans to raise military spending to  .5% of GDP, an increase of 17 billion, and declared it would hit 3% by 2030. Robert Habeck, German economic minister, has proposed raising their military spending to 3.5%.

However, many military experts and European leaders say the target needs to be 3.5% of GDP. A Brussels-based think tank projects that Europe would need to spend an additional 250 billion euros to raise spending to 3.5% of GDP. Many of Russia’s border countries have already increased their military spending with Poland spending 4% of their GDP on military spending, making them the highest in NATO. The announcement to increase spending has caused defense company’s stock prices to increase throughout Europe. 

Normally, drastic increases in government spending result in an increase in government borrowing; however, Europe is still dealing with the after-effects of excessive borrowing during COVID-19. Europe has strict rules on government borrowing to ensure that no member acts recklessly and requires other countries to bail them out, so it is likely that many governments would have to reduce spending in other areas. There have been talks of amending these rules to allow more borrowing for military spending, but this has caused concern with some leaders. After the Cold War, most European countries decreased military spending and reallocated money to more social and infrastructure programs. 

Currently, the U.S. contributes 2/3s of NATO's military spending, which is different from NATO's total spending, in part due to the larger population of the U.S. and the size of their military. However, in 2024, many European countries were still not spending the agreed-upon 2% of GDP on their militaries, with Spain and Italy— two of the larger countries— spending less than 2%. Some experts believe it could take years for Europe’s militaries to return to full force even with the increased spending. Spain, Belgium, Italy, and France have debt levels high enough that may be prohibitive for new borrowing. 

Many are concerned about Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting without U.S. aid. Kyiv announced they have enough ammunition and resources to continue fighting at the same rate until mid-summer. However, before Former U.S. President Biden’s administration ended, he signed contracts ensuring Ukraine receives aid for the upcoming years. Since the war started, the U.S. has supplied the most aid at over 70 billion. But in the face of declining aid, Europe is trying to help make up the difference. In 2024 the UK, EU, and Norway supplied more aid than the U.S. did, at 25 billion, and they have plans to increase aid to 30 billion.

Ukraine has also retooled its economy to support its war effort as they now produce 6 times the weaponry a year they did at the beginning of the year, producing 30 billion a year. They now produce 55% of their own military needs, with the US supplying 20% and Europe providing 25%. However, experts say note there are many advanced technologies that only the U.S. can provide, and once those supplies run out Ukraine will have reduced abilities. 

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