globalEDGE Blog - By Tag: brics

In an age where low and negative interest rates dominate the central banking scene for most of the developed world, one major nation has a target interest rate of 14.25%. The country in question has been all over the news in the past few years, from the World Cup and the Olympics, to the impeachment of a president and a deep recession. It is Brazil whose official interest rate stands at 14.25%, which is entirely counterintuitive given the information that Brazil is mired in a deep recession. Brazil has to maintain such a high official interest rate due to the fact that they are facing issues with inflation that have persisted for years. Since 2000, Brazil has only had three years where average inflation in the country ran below 5%, and in both 2015 and year to date 2016 Brazil has seen inflation run above 9%. The inflation issue has hampered Brazil’s ability to encourage growth through monetary policy and as such Brazil’s recession, which now spans over 2 years dating back to 2014, has persisted. In recent months, however, Brazil’s economy has hit several key targets and as such a rate cut is officially on the table.

Since the BRICs acronym was first developed in 2001, the BRICS have been a symbol for economic growth and an increasingly global economy. Until recently, the five BRICS countries all enjoyed above average growth rates, and were seen as the leading emerging economies in the world. The acronym originally referred to four countries, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, until 2010, when South Africa was added to complete the acronym. Recently, the BRICS have seen their high growth rates decrease, and in Russia and Brazil, historic recessions are crippling their economies. Through these uneasy times, the BRICS development bank hopes to renew some growth in the slumping economies.

Just last week, Russia's currency, the ruble, fell sharply in value by almost 20%. This drastic event sent Russia's central banks into chaos as they consistently increased interest rates to try to rebalance the ruble. On Thursday, Putin declared that the ruble has reached its highest value in three weeks and is stable again. Unfortunately, economists warn that the fall and subsequent recovery of the ruble is not going to pass without adverse effects, both for Russia and for the global economy. Russia, which has already had a rough year economically, now is forced to withstand the threat of an impending recession. Other regions of the world will also have to be wary of the impact of the ruble dilemma.

As a result of a three day summit in which Chinese President Xi Jinping visited India, both countries signed landmark deals that will open up vast commercial and trade channels for two of the most populous nations in the world. These events will help accelerate India’s economy and industry, as well as strengthen China's regional relations.

The Russian defense industry, despite its recorded 28% growth rate over the past decade, has shifted its sights towards Latin America due to the crisis in Syria and changing economic and ideological ties towards the European Union throughout former Soviet satellite states. Latin America, and especially Venezuela, has experienced a 61% growth rate of its military expenditures since 2004, which is great news for a needy Russian defense industry that has seen the disappearance of its primary trading partners of Eastern Europe, Iraq, Libya, Iran, and Syria.

The World Bank's Development Data Group and the IFC have recently released the new Global Consumption Database, which now stands as the most comprehensive dataset on consumer spending patterns in developing countries. The database's sources include government surveys of more than one million households in 92 countries, and provides thorough information on 4.5 billion potential consumers for global companies. The initiative is aimed at assisting international firms in discovering new sources of demand, as well as providing market research to evaluate business opportunities in emerging markets.

In the midst of what appeared to be a comeback for the European automotive market, which includes western Russia in international marketing figures, the current political crisis in Ukraine has spurred on fears that Russia's days as a growing reliable source of car sales may be coming to a quick halt. Seeing as Russian forces in the Crimea region has resurrected Cold War tensions between Russian and Western supported factions, American and European investors in the Russian automotive market have reportedly lost confidence in Russia as a continued source of fuel for the sector's global recovery. These tensions come alongside economic turmoil that the international automotive industry has been handling in other emerging markets, which includes the currency market problems that are worsening prospects in the emerging-market countries of Turkey and South Africa.

Now that so many businesses are expanding into the BRIC countries, one major focus should be how are they going to secure the best and brightest to work for them.  The needs and wants from employers by professionals in countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China are unlike that of employees in developed countries. Companies need to learn how to tailor their workplace in these countries in order to identify, secure, and retain top talent.

With the lighting of the ceremonial torch in Sochi, Russia last Friday night, the 22nd Winter Olympic Games have officially begun. Beyond capturing the world's attention throughout the month of February, these Olympic Games, like other major sporting events, have profound economic and political effects that resonate throughout the entire international system. Therefore, as the world's eyes turn towards the showcase of some of the world's finest athleticism taking place in Sochi, this post will explore some of the less eye-catching, yet equally significant, aspects of events like the Sochi Olympics and their unique place within international markets and politics.

During the globalEDGE Blog’s first five years, it has served the international business community not only as a resource for global business news analyses, but also as a time capsule for events that significantly influenced international markets. Born in September 2008, the resounding news of the blog’s launching was understandingly dwarfed by other major events of the time, such as the rapid spread of cell phone use and business in Sub-Saharan Africa and, of course, the global financial crisis that’s effect on the global economy was comparable only to the Great Depression. In this blog, we will not only go back and revisit the news that captivated the world’s attention in the first months of the blog, but will also discuss the lasting effects of those events and how they continue to impact the world in 2013.

This week we are celebrating the birthday of the globalEDGE blog! With its inception on September 12, 2008, the blog is now turning five years old and we are starting our celebration with a blog post about what has transpired in emerging markets over the past five years.

With underdevelopment and currency volatility in the emerging markets, the biggest players have set out to fix those problems. The BRICS leaders met in late March in South Africa to plan out objectives for a new bank that would help fund infrastructure expansion, which is set to reach $4.5 trillion in the next five years. Talks also included discussing pooling foreign currency reserves to resolve currency volatility.

One third of the world’s population is now connected to the internet, a surprising statistic considering where we started not too long ago.  As more people become connected, consumer consumption patterns around the globe are changing. The mediums people use to consume content are changing as well, caused by cultural differences as well as different regulations across countries. Many regions, such as Scandinavia and India, are a much different market than the United States. We will explore these differences by analyzing how they affect consumption patterns and their impact on business in a global context.

As globalization has emerged and evolved into one of the leading factors driving business decisions today, certain countries and economies have been profiled for their seemingly important role in this new age. India is seen as one of those stars in the age of globalization but recent setbacks may warrant a second look. With anemic growth in the United States economy and the European Union with its whole host of problems some economic consequences for India seem legitimate. However, with the missteps that India businesses have taken, both at home and abroad, the business practices of the country must be questioned.

Way back in 2001, Jim O’Neil coined the term “the BRIC countries.” These countries were to be the building blocks of the “post-American world.” Businessmen and investors flocked to these locations to see what the future held.

Fast forward to 11 years later and the story is a very different one. Uncertainty now resonates throughout the BRIC (BRICS if you want to include South Africa) countries due to an increasingly slow growth rate, coupled with widespread corruption, political failure and currency woes. This paints a familiar picture to some who witnessed the former “American Killers” such as Europe (1960), Japan (1970) and the Asian Tigers (1990) unable to sustain steady growth during those times.

Brazil has been a steady pillar of South America and the BRIC for the past few years, but things seem to be taking a turn for the worse.  Not only has the economic powerhouse been losing steam when it comes to industry domination, but also labor costs are being set ridiculously high.  KPMP’s 2012 Competitive Alternatives Report, which compares the structure of costs for companies in various countries while taking into account, taxes, labor, rent, and cost of capital, studied 19 industry sectors in the BRIC and nine other industrialized countries.  The commentary revealed that Brazil is the most expensive developing nation for doing business, only about 7% cheaper than the United States.

In Brazil, where young workers have typically opted to join large corporations in the public or private sector, statistics now confirm a rise in young entrepreneurs choosing instead to run their own franchise. According to the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, the number of Brazilians aged 18 to 24 that attempted entrepreneurship increased by 74% between 2002 and 2010, with the franchising model being the simplest and safest way to run their own business. The sector has experienced a 10-13% average annual increase since 2002, generated a profit of $44 billion USD in 2011 (89 billion reals), and is responsible for 837,000 jobs.

The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) constitute 20% of the world economy, and, according the IMF, will have a projected combined GDP of more than $14 trillion this year.  Growth and prosperity have been bestowed upon these now-influential powers for the past decade.  But clear signals are being given that these economic bastions are heading towards a muddy path, like most macro bull run investments do.

This past week, ratings agency Standards & Poor’s warned India that it risks a sovereign debt downgrade which would result in the country falling off the list of an investment grade country. Currently, India is rated at the lowest investment grade rating – BBB. Falling below this level would mean that India bonds would be considered junk bonds. Much of the blame is assigned to the Prime Minister, notes S&P, pointing out specific problems with the political system “that has more gridlock than the United States,” coupled with high inflation and a falling currency and GDP.

With some of the largest economies in the world struggling to grow, companies are looking to emerging markets to boost sales. Global corporations are testing their limits as they reach into new untouched markets. While there are many challenges that come with selling in a new market, there is also great potential. Many global companies are discovering this fact as they see emerging markets growing their sales.

Following a summit in New Delhi on March 29, 2012, the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) announced the proposal for a shared development bank.  The idea is that this BRICS bank would provide an alternative to the U.S.-dominated World Bank and even have the ability to protect the developing world from financial problems originating in wealthier nations.  Only a day after the summit in New Delhi, president of the World Bank Robert Zoellick said that the World Bank is interested in partnering with the BRICS bank and would be willing to share knowledge regarding global operations with the new bank.

Doug Barry, an expert in small business exportation, recently teamed up with Jim Blasingame of “The Small Business Advocate Website” in three interviews regarding the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China.  These interviews focus on exporting and doing business in these four countries and the many opportunities that are available in these countries in the business sector.

The deals and sales offered during this year’s holiday season captured us all, but companies have been shopping as well. In fact, Japan’s multinational corporations seem to have gone on global shopping spree. This past year, Japanese companies spent a record $80 billion on approximately 620 foreign companies. These international investments could be seen as not only a sign of economic strength, but also as an indication of domestic weakness.

When world economies develop, massive urbanization soon follows.  As of 2008, there are now more people living in cities than rural areas around the world.  Countries currently experiencing significant urban growth have an opportunity to learn from developed nations that have experienced similar trends in the past.  With access to modern technology, cities can develop in smarter ways than ever before.  Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, is using thoughtful planning and foresight to establish a new standard for urban development that other regions are likely to follow.  

The widely accepted “BRIC” designation for the world’s largest emerging economies may soon be in need of a revision.  In fact, some international business scholars have felt for many years that Jim O’Neill’s term for the developing nations of Brazil, Russia, India, and China should be updated to include at least one additional country.  Morgan Stanley publicly stated as early as two years ago that the commonly referenced acronym should be revised to “BRIIC” in order to include the rapidly growing economy of Indonesia. 

India, the world’s tenth largest economy according to the International Monetary Fund, is seeing troubling signs in the short-term outlook. Recently, India has seen a slowing growth rate in GDP, increase in inflation to 9.1%, and a decrease in local investment. Many economists attribute these worrisome signs to the corruption and scandals plaguing the growing nation.  In recent months, the central government has been struggling to get the economy back on track.

With China being one of Brazil’s most important trading partners, the two have created a whole lot of business and money-making opportunities for both countries. No person knows this more than Eike Batista, a Brazilian minerals tycoon that is now the eighth richest man in the world, with a wealth of $27 billion. He’s gotten there quickly, thanks in large part to China.

Discussion about the BRIC countries, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, has become widespread as global trade continues to see growth in the near future. Doug Barry, the Director of Marketing and Communication at the United States Commercial Service was able to emphasize this growth in his article Building with BRICS. These countries are on everyone's radar when looking for potential market growth and investment. They have proved their worth so far in the past couple years and there doesn't seem to be much slow down in the next decade. Now the only question is where to focus the most attention and what actions are being made to ensure we don't miss out on a great opportunity.

“Feeding the world” has gotten more difficult as world population has risen, but the countries contributing the most to this population growth are also doing their part in making food for it as well. A recent joint study put forth by the United Nations-OECD says that agricultural output in the BRIC countries over the next decade will grow three times as fast as in the major developed countries. The report says a lot about changing diets production, and what and where one can expect to see their food coming from.

The BRICs markets – Brazil, Russia, India and China – have survived the global economic crisis quite well, emerging even stronger than before. These counties have large surpluses in international trade as well as reserves in foreign currency, which really helped in the last downturn. They are on pace to equal the G7 in size by 2032, seven years earlier than originally predicted.

Do you want to go out to eat? People around the world are saying “yes” to this answer, but are finding different venues to satisfy their hunger. In fact, you might be surprised to hear that 20% of the world’s food venues are street vendors! Did you know that of the 10 largest markets in the world in the food services industry, five are in East Asia? The industry is making some major shifts which are also specific to geographic location.

Russia has endured a long courtship period with the World Trade Organization - 16 years of talks and counting - yet official membership has always remained just out of reach. There are currently 153 members in the WTO, ranging from Albania to Zimbabwe. Russia is now the only BRIC country not to join, and is by far the largest economy of all the world’s non-members.

India + China is a third of the world.  But what about India vs. China?  Watch this brief video from CNN that compares some of the key similarities & differences between the two most populous countries:

Despite rising gas prices, a global financial crisis, increasing unemployment rates, and numerous reports proclaiming that they cause cancer, cell phones remain as popular as ever, and the mobile phone industry is even expected to boom in the next five years! According to ZDNet, although average revenue per user is expected to decline, the number of users will rise.

The reason? Growth in emerging markets for cell phones is astounding. An analysis conducted by Portio Research predicted that the percentage of the world’s population that  uses of mobile-phones will increase to 80% in 2013 from the current 50% now, which amounts to 5.8 billion people. The expected number of cell phone users is expected to reach 4 billion this year alone!

Do brands create nations, or do nations create brands? That's a thought provoking question in today’s increasingly global economy. Consumers – regardless of location – determine the fate of every brand. Similarly, the global rise of commerce and transportation in the past few decades has also led to a rise in immigrant workers working on these brands in every part of the world. The article on brandchannel.com that discusses the lessons learned from the list of 2008 best global brands points out that the phrase “Made in ____” should really be expanded to “Made in ____, by ____” – e.g., Made in Italy, by Vietnamese!