globalEDGE Blog - By Tag: foreign-direct-investment

Historically known as one of the most closed off economies in the world, Japan has always had an interesting relationship with foreign investors. Japan first began to warm up to foreign investment in the 1990s as the island nation was in the midst of a decade long period of stagnation. Foreign investors jumped, perhaps too aggressively, at the opportunity to park their capital into what was then the world’s second-largest economy. Foreign ownership of Japanese company stock skyrocketed from 4% in 1988 to 28% in 2006.

International trends regarding Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) include optimism for large developed markets, a 2016 decline in global FDI, and North America, Asia, and Europe as top FDI destinations. Due to the recent global economic growth, many developed and emerging markets have seen FDI inflows in recent years.

Although modern economies have increasingly become globalized, opinions of foreign direct investments (FDI) have varied throughout human history.

This blog analyzes A.T. Kearney’s Global Trends 2016-2021 report, which focuses on Political, Technological, and Demographic Revolutions. Today, I will specifically go into the 3rd trend in the report, which talks about how the Global Labor Market is approaching a tipping point. The growing labor market in the last couple of decades has been one of the primary drivers of global economic growth. According to data from the UN Population Division, the share of the working-age population globally has risen steadily from 61% in 1975 to 71% in 2015. However, the global workforce is now expected to level off around 70-72% through the end of the century. This tipping point will have significant implications on economies and businesses all around the world.

China’s central bank, known as the Peoples Bank of China, or PBOC, is cracking down on the popular cryptocurrency Bitcoin, as part of their latest attempt to stem China’s capital outflow amidst the decline of the Yuan. The Chinese Yuan is currently under immense pressure due in part to the slowdown of growth in the Chinese economy and increasing uncertainty about its future prospects. The currency depreciated 6.6% against the US Dollar in 2016, and in order to prevent a further decline, the PBOC was forced to sell around $26 billion foreign exchange reserves. This selloff, coupled with the comparative rise of the US Dollar caused China’s reserves to fall to a six year low of $3.011 trillion.

It is expected that Beijing will tighten capital controls after the foreign exchange reserves fell by nearly $70 billion due the Central Bank’s policy to prevent the Renminbi from further depreciating due to high capital outflows. According the Institute of International Finance, October was the 33rd consecutive month of net outflow of capital.

Earlier this month on October 5th, Brazil’s congress approved the key points of a polarizing bill, which would allow foreign investment in the nation's offshore oil fields. The bill overturns parts of a 2010 bill which was aimed at increasing government control over the lucrative oil fields. This law mandated that the state-run oil company, Petrobras, be the lead operator and hold a minimum of a 30% stake in any offshore drilling operations in so-called “pre-salt” fields.

Over a week ago, Indonesian president Joko Widodo announced that he would like to lower the country's corporate tax rate. In addition, he is considering a more drastic change of converting one of the nation's islands into a tax haven.

Nairobi, Kenya is the scene for the 2016 World Investment Forum and also the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The parallel, and in some cases joint, meetings attract a plethora of intellectual power, decision-making authorities, and other invited and influential parties. A key agenda item across the meetings is investment opportunities based on the newly established Sustainable Development Goals.

Foreign interests in the American real estate market have dropped recently. A report released this week by the National Association of Realtors indicated that foreigners are buying U.S. residential real estate at the lowest levels since 2013.

The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently announced a relaxation of India's rules regarding foreign ownership of businesses operating in the country. The announcement comes just days after the resignation of the chairman of the country's central bank and has been seen as an attempt at reassuring international markets.

A major alliance between two ascending regions of the world has been bubbling under the surface of public awareness for years. This alliance is of the economic variety, and has the potential to reshape the socioeconomic and political future of our world. The size of China’s investment in Africa is truly massive; or is it? As many may not know, China has been in the news for its lending and investing activities in Africa over the recent years. According to new research and investigation, however, the scope and hype of the Chinese activity in Africa may be over-exaggerated.

South Africa’s economy is in a crisis, with its growth forecast for 2016 dropping from 1.7% to .9%. Making matters worse, the rand, South Africa's national currency, has depreciated by 30% over the last 18 months. Currently, the government is taking many different measures to stop the country from entering into recession and to please the rating agencies who are threatening to downgrade South Africa's debt to junk status. Both of these could have dramatic effects on the country and its relationship with foreign investors.

Last year, $735 billion flowed out of emerging markets, Compared to $111 billion in 2014, this situation has not occurred since the late 1980’s and could be bad news for emerging markets. With all of this capital flowing out of emerging markets, this means that the money is being used to buy assets elsewhere. Unfortunately, since emerging markets are still building up their roads, infrastructure, factories, and technology to improve their own economies, they are extremely reliant on investment from developed countries. With money being taken out of these countries to be invested elsewhere, emerging markets could face a tough year economically.

Over the last month, India has been making quite a few changes to its foreign investment policy with a goal of facilitating more money coming into the country. So far, India has eased local-sourcing requirements for international businesses setting up shop in the country, lifted foreign investment restrictions in a multitude of industries, and has publicized a series of other measures meant to invite investment from overseas.

Ever since the 2008 financial crisis, emerging markets have received less investment from other countries. This is due to falling demand for the commodities that have traditionally powered these countries' exports. In addition to this, flows to emerging markets decreased even further in 2014 due to unease in the markets. Now it is looking even grimmer. By the end of 2015, capital inflows to emerging markets are projected to reach $548 billion, while emerging markets are only expected to have about $540 billion in outflows. These numbers are troubling, for if the gap between capital inflows and outflows continues to decrease, net capital flows to emerging markets may go negative for the first time in decades. 

For the first time, Saudi Arabia has opened its markets to foreign investors in hopes that in can attract more international investments in the country. Saudi Arabia has experienced solid growth over the last decade due to hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue from the sale of oil and is attempting to maintain its local spending plan after crude prices have tumbled. The opening of the stock exchange can play a role in reducing its dependence on oil as a driver in its economy and also aid in its future economic growth.

A faltering economy and civil unrest are turning away potential foreign investment in South Africa. The unemployment rate is at an 11 year high of 26.4% and the stagnating economy does not provide an optimistic outlook for this rate to drop. This bleak forecast is causing massive amounts of civil unrest in the form of violent protests all across the nation.

Saudi Arabia has set a date for the opening of its stock market to foreign investors. The nation’s Capital Market Authority recently announced that the country’s only stock exchange, Tadawul, will allow direct international purchases of its market shares starting June 15 of this year.

India’s Finance Minister announced a new federal budget over the weekend. The budget emphasizes increasing growth and investment, while putting undesirable but necessary reforms on the back burner.

It is no secret that China is the largest and one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Its enormous population and low labor rates are the reason thousands of American and European businesses have expanded operations or moved production to China. However, recent reports show that foreign companies in China are experiencing some speed bumps.

As foreign investors realize China is becoming more expensive for manufacturing, they are turning their eyes to countries in Southeast Asia. Vietnam, for example, saw its foreign direct investment (FDI) grow 60% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2014. A large proportion of the FDI has gone to the high-tech industry. While people are expecting the technology boom to continue into the future, Vietnam is preparing a series of regulations for the technology industry, which may slow down the growth of IT business in the country.

The aphorism “you can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar” is now being internalized by the financial world. In a league of their own, activist investors are taking great measures to rebrand themselves as “engagement” funds. Typically, this designation is reserved for an individual or group that purchases a significant stake of a publicly traded company and tries to implement major changes within said company’s business model.

Southeast Asia has been lauded for its robust connectivity and commerce within sectors ranging from manufacturing to tourism to technology for the past few decades. And, in light of recent events, Burma (also known as Myanmar) seems to be following the same trend. Last month, more than 22 companies announced they will move manufacturing facilities into Burma’s Thilawa Special Economic Zone (SEZ). The initiative is one of the first steps President Thein Sein took to reintegrate Burma in the global economy. When fully-functioning, Thilawa will be able to employ 70,000 workers and manufacture goods, consumer products, and construction materials for the domestic market, while also supporting export-oriented goods such as apparel, textiles, and automotive parts.

If projections hold true, 2014 will be the first year China’s investment overseas exceeds foreign direct investment into China. Foreign investment in China is expected to reach $120 billion this year, and it is predicted that China’s investment in other nations will surpass this amount. By acquiring foreign companies, Chinese firms will grow internationally and be able to contribute useful technologies and innovations to new markets.

Last week, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy visited Beijing, China to help gain economic support for Spain. Rajoy met with the President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang to help facilitate the signing of 14 contracts, totaling about 3 billion euros ($3.8 billion). A crowd of Spanish and Chinese businesspeople were in attendance as Rajoy encouraged China to invest in Spain after its recovery from the Eurozone crisis.

With draws such as competitive labor costs, profitable domestic markets, and a skilled workforce, India is a top candidate for foreign investment. India has very strong management and business education systems, leading to a working class of citizens that foreign companies can accept as the workforce in expanding business. India's infrastructure, consumer products, technology, media, telecommunications, and life-sciences sectors are expected to drive the country's growth over the next few years.

A few months ago, Brazilian authorities officially announced that $2.3 billion will be spent on infrastructure projects alone for the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games. These costs will rise as projects are added along the way, and efforts to solve Brazil’s infrastructure gap continue. The pressure on the country continues as Brazil will be the first South American country to host the Olympic Games. On top of the 2016 Olympics, Brazil is also hosting the 2014 FIFA World Cup this summer and has experienced delays in its infrastructure preparation. Therefore, the focus on infrastructure development has sharpened in Brazil. Now the question is: How will Brazil’s infrastructure growth impact its long-term prospects as an emerging country in the global economy?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) was $354 billion last year, making it the second largest African economy behind South Africa. This past Sunday, for the first time in a decade, Nigeria’s statistician-general announced a revision in its GDP from 42.4 trillion naira to 80.2 trillion naira.  How could an economy grow so much in just one night?

On Saturday, Cuban legislators approved a new measure to help attract foreign investment into the country. The law makes initial investment in Cuba free of taxation and increases lawful protection over these finances. This new piece of legislation comes after a year of disappointing economic growth, which caused Raul Castro and Cuba's government to put forth a series of reforms to fix and modernize Cuba's economy. While many agree that increased foreign capital in Cuba would be highly beneficial to the nation, the fact remains it is still a very uneasy place to do business and the future impact of this law still remains uncertain.

In December of 2013 the Federal Reserve (FED) announced that it would begin to taper its bond-buying program by $10 million per month. As a result of quantitative easing (QE), the FED had been purchasing $85 million in assets in order to stimulate the economy. As the Federal Reserve continues to reduce its monthly purchases, there will be certain effects on globalization. Since tapering was announced, emerging market economies have been struggling. As the FED continues to taper, emerging markets could continue to see and outflow of funds and fluctuations in their currencies.

As the rupiah reached a five-year low on Dec. 23, 2013, the Indonesian government began to worry about the nation’s economy. It soon announced increased levels of foreign investment in the country's power plants, advertising, and pharmaceutical industries in order to boost the slowing economy. However, some people are concerned that this move will bring many challenges to the nation .

Standard Chartered, a British bank with more than 1,700 branches in over 70 countries, has officially opened its first branch in Iraq.  This branch will be located in Baghdad.  The British bank plans to open another branch this year in Erbil, Iraq and another next year in Basra, Iraq.  These Iraq-based branches are being established to meet the needs of Standard Chartered’s global clients working in the oil, telecommunication, and infrastructure industries.  Standard Charter also intends for these branches and their personnel to aid the Iraqi Government, its ministries, and the Iraqi Central Bank in an advisory role.

The Baltic countries are known as some of the most ambitious and educated countries in the world, and they also consist of some of the most liberal policies for trade and investment. Their drive for success has been a critical factor in their success after the financial crisis plagued the European Union. The Baltic countries were a hot spot for investment before the crisis, with all of their intelligence and FDI flowing in. Possessing all of these incredible characteristics and policies would allow one to assume that they would be a good match against a global financial crisis, but that person would be wrong.

When an economic downturn lingers over a market, generating profits becomes extremely difficult for a business. However, there are a few ways to reduce this cyclical business risk. One of the ways happens to be with the use of international business tactics. Perhaps surprisingly, a casino located in Las Vegas, Nevada serves as a great example of this risk reduction strategy.

According to a report by the World Bank, Sub-Saharan Africa is on pace to achieve larger economic growth than the global average over the next three years. The report stated that higher commodities, increased investment opportunities, and a steady recovery in the global economy should sustain the region’s GDP growth above 5%, while the global average remains merely 2.4% as of this year. Excluding South Africa, the region’s strongest economy, African economies are currently growing at 5.8 percent, higher than the developing country average of 4.9 percent.Coupled with an anticipated increase in global foreign direct investment, which is expected to reach $54 billion USD by 2015, the economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa provides an immense opportunity not only to elevate the standing of African nations in the global economy, but also the chance to fight back against the region’s staggering poverty levels.

Until now, China has never shown much interest in Middle Eastern investment. If it is able to establish a relationship with the Middle East, it can take advantage of arguably one of the most volatile areas in the world. In an area where westerners have long feared to go, China seems very interested in the diplomacy, economics, soft power and security. Upon helping in the war in the Middle East, China has begun to fully immerse themselves in the Middle East in an effort to increase their involvement in the area.

For years, Africa has been viewed as a continent stricken by poverty with practically no chance of achieving sustainable economic growth. Just over 12 years ago, The Economist even labeled Africa as “The Hopeless Continent” plagued by war and disease.  However, that paradigm is beginning to radically change. Over the past decade, Africa has been the second-fastest-growing region in the world with an annual growth rate of 5.1 percent. To the surprise of many, over 500 African companies have annual revenue of $100 million or more. How has Africa been able to turn around its fortune in such a short period of time? Many believe this economic turnaround can be attributed to greater political stability and reforms that have unleashed the private sector in many African countries. Though, the main source for this economic resurgence has actually been globalization as you will soon see.

In a move that always stirs controversy and can enflame international relations President Evo Morales, of Bolivia, has moved to nationalize the energy sector by overtaking the largely Spanish owned company, Electropaz. President Morales has accused the Iberdrola, the company based in Spain that owns the majority of Electropaz, of charging artificially high prices to residents in rural areas of the country. Morales argues that under the constitution this move is permissible by acting in the public’s interest.

In today’s interconnected and globalized world, receiving investments from abroad is a major factor contributing to economic growth for countries all across the world. Spain has recognized the importance of international business and foreign investment by implementing strategies to change the flow of investment. In the late 1990s, many Spanish companies began investing in Latin America and also started a vast amount of business operations there. Now, Spain is looking for investments to flow in the complete opposite direction.

Although government bonds issued by the United States, Germany, and Japan are still the main safe havens for investors, trends now show that the slowing economic growth in America and China, combined with the European debt crisis, have pushed investors to search the globe for safer markets. Countries that were once considered on the frontier of the investing world, like Norway, Finland, Sweden, Canada, and Australia, have been experiencing a rush of money from American investors looking to move abroad.  Common market characteristics in these countries include having little of the risk, or outsized returns, that were once attractive prior to the current global financial crisis.

For the first time in 25 years, the World Bank is considering sending financial aid to Burma. Following Burma's recent political and financial reforms, sanctions have been repealed against the nation in an effort to bring Burma back into the international community. Following this trend, the World Bank is preparing up to $85 million in grants to give to Burma for community-driven development programs. According to World Bank group president Jim Yong Kim, these grants are intended to build confidence in Burma's reform process, help in the World Bank's mission of eradicating poverty, and help to restructure Burma's current debt $397 million.

After an 18-year effort, the Russian Parliament has finally approved the country's entry into the World Trade Organization. While the other nations of the W.T.O. had agreed to Russia's entry in December, the acceptance still required a majority vote in Russia's lower house of Parliament, known as the Duma. What could have been a routine acceptance, since President Vladimir Putin's United Russia party controls the Duma, was interrupted by strong opposition by the unusually vocal Communist Party. As the ratification dragged on, Russia's economic minister Andrei Belousov warned lawmakers that the agreement reached towards the end of 2011 would expire if not ratified by the mid-July deadline. This sparked a vote by the Duma, which voted 238 to 208 in favor of joining, with one abstention.

It appears that Saudi Arabia is attempting to become more open to foreign direct investment. Currently they are a large exporter of oil. Saudi Arabia exports about 9 million barrels per day of oil. Since oil prices are high this has benefited Saudi Arabia, but they are attempting to plan for a less oil dependent society in the future. In order to do this, they will need to diversify the types of businesses in operation in the country and work more with foreign investors.

Africa is a land with vast natural resources, but they come at a high price. Africa is known for having some of the most unstable countries in the world. Even with these dangers, China has broadened its exposure in the region to secure the natural resources needed by the factories and businesses of the world’s fastest growing economy.

Currently in Hungary, the car industry accounts for a quarter of their industrial output. Germany’s Audi has just announced an over $1 billion expansion plan which will strengthen an economy that is struggling for growth. Hungary has become a center of production for export to the rest of the EU, just like the neighbouring Czech Republic. This isn’t just a big deal because of the amount of money being put into the project, but it also shows that these plants can become increasingly important over time as they do more than just simple assembly work.

As growth in emerging economies outpaces debt-burdened developed countries, there are many opportunities for investment. So who is investing in developing countries and why?

The Middle East is looking for new places to expand in the agriculture industry. After an Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD) meeting, they are searching for the best places to invest in foreign farmland. In recent years, buying foreign farmland has been especially appealing to Middle Eastern energy companies who have a lot of capital but not a lot of land.

With plans for double digit economic growth each year, India must work quickly to get their infrastructure in shape. Prime minister Manmohan Singh recently stated that he was going to double infrastructure spending from 500 billion dollars to 1 trillion in their five-year plan. Right now the country's poor infrastructure is holding back India's economic development. All-in-all India's highways minglister Kamal Nath set a goal of 20km of roads a day starting in June. That's almost 7,000 km of roads a year! That's an ambitious target but may be something this country needs.

The U.S. commercial service specializes in helping U.S. businesses expand internationally. Recently, they posted three interviews on their website which focus on business opportunities in India. If you are even considering India as a potential market, you should take a minute to learn from the experiences of people in these interviews.

The international consulting firm Mercer recently released its list of the World’s Most Expensive Cities to Live. The implications of the study on global business are substantial. With all of the outsourcing that has taken place, companies will be much more guarded in where they move their businesses to. Many times, companies provide compensation packages to employees living abroad, and it will cost them considerably more to help support employees abroad in cities which are expensive to live in.

Although there may be a demand for their business, companies will likely choose cities which are cheaper for their employees, which means they spend less on employee compensation and can gain more profits. What implications does the list have for you?
 

The Top 5:

When the fast money round in the popular game show Family Feud has globalization as one of the questions, “the survey says” …China! But can this help Latin America win the jackpot? That is an interesting question and here’s why…